Emerg Infect Dis. 2018 Dec;24(12):2169-2175. doi: 10.3201/eid2412.171357.
We investigated the spatial epidemiology of bovine tuberculosis (TB) in wildlife in a multihost system. We surveyed bovine TB in Portugal by serologic analysis of elutes of dried blood spots obtained from hunted wild boar. We modeled spatial disease risk by using areal generalized linear mixed models with conditional autoregressive priors. Antibodies against Mycobaterium bovis were detected in 2.4% (95% CI 1.5%-3.8%) of 678 wild boar in 2 geographic clusters, and the predicted risk fits well with independent reports of M. bovis culture. Results show that elutes are an almost perfect substitute for serum (Cohen unweighted κ = 0.818), indicating that serologic tests coupled with dried blood spots are an effective strategy for large-scale bovine TB surveys, using wild boar as sentinel species. Results also show that bovine TB is an emerging wildlife disease and stress the need to prevent further geographic spread and prevalence increase.
我们调查了多宿主系统中野生动物中的牛结核病（TB）的空间流行病学。我们通过对来自狩猎野猪的干燥血液斑洗脱物进行血清学分析来调查葡萄牙的牛结核病。我们使用带有条件自回归先验的面积广义线性混合模型来模拟空间疾病风险。在 678 只野猪中，有 2.4%（95%CI 1.5%-3.8%）检测到针对牛分枝杆菌的抗体，并且预测的风险与 M. bovis 培养物的独立报告非常吻合。结果表明，洗脱液几乎是血清的完美替代品（Cohen 未加权κ=0.818），表明结合了干燥血液斑的血清学检测是一种用于大规模牛结核病调查的有效策略，可使用野猪作为哨物种。结果还表明，牛结核病是一种新出现的野生动物疾病，并强调需要防止其在地理上进一步传播和流行率增加。
