Center for Human-Environment System Sustainability (CHESS), State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology (ESPRE), Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; School of Natural Resources, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
Center for Human-Environment System Sustainability (CHESS), State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology (ESPRE), Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; School of Natural Resources, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2019 Feb 15;651(Pt 2):2772-2786. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.177. Epub 2018 Oct 13.
Evaluation of climate change impacts (CCIs) on urban expansion is important to improving the urban sustainability in drylands. Taking the agro-pastoral transitional zone of northern China (APTZNC) as an example, this study evaluates potential CCIs on urban expansion in 2015-2050. First, we set up six climate change scenarios (CCSs) based on the simulated results of global climate model and regional climate model under different representative concentration pathways. Then, we simulate regional urban expansion under the different CCSs using the zoned Land Use Scenario Dynamics-urban (LUSD-urban) model. We find that climate change will be a key factor that affects urban expansion in this region. The urban land affected by climate change in the entire region will increase from 20.24-26.48 km (2020) to 119.71-339.26 km (2050), an increase of 4.91-11.81 times. The CCIs on urban expansion will be the most significant in the mid-western region. In 2050, the urban land potentially affected by climate change will be 98.70-213.88 km, which is 42.26%-134.12% of the urban land in the entire region. To improve urban sustainability in the APTZNC, effective measures must be adopted to mitigate and adapt to CCIs on urban expansion.
评估气候变化影响（CCIs）对城市扩张的影响对于提高干旱地区的城市可持续性至关重要。以中国北方农牧交错带（APTZNC）为例，本研究评估了 2015-2050 年潜在的气候变化对城市扩张的影响。首先，我们根据不同代表性浓度路径下全球气候模型和区域气候模型的模拟结果设置了六个气候变化情景（CCSs）。然后，我们使用分区土地利用情景动态-城市（LUSD-urban）模型模拟了不同 CCS 下的区域城市扩张。我们发现，气候变化将是影响该地区城市扩张的关键因素。整个区域受气候变化影响的城市土地将从 20.24-26.48km2（2020 年）增加到 119.71-339.26km2（2050 年），增加 4.91-11.81 倍。气候变化对城市扩张的影响在中西部地区最为显著。到 2050 年，受气候变化影响的潜在城市土地将达到 98.70-213.88km2，占整个地区城市土地的 42.26%-134.12%。为了提高 APTZNC 的城市可持续性，必须采取有效措施来缓解和适应气候变化对城市扩张的影响。
