气候变化对城市景观动态潜在影响的替代性未来分析。
Alternative future analysis for assessing the potential impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics.
机构信息
Center for Human-Environment System Sustainability (CHESS), State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology (ESPRE), Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation and Desertification Combating, Ministry of Education, School of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China.
出版信息
Sci Total Environ. 2015 Nov 1;532:48-60. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.05.103. Epub 2015 Jun 6.
Assessing the impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics (ULD) is the foundation for adapting to climate change and maintaining urban landscape sustainability. This paper demonstrates an alternative future analysis by coupling a system dynamics (SD) and a cellular automata (CA) model. The potential impact of different climate change scenarios on ULD from 2009 to 2030 was simulated and evaluated in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan megalopolis cluster area (BTT-MCA). The results suggested that the integrated model, which combines the advantages of the SD and CA model, has the strengths of spatial quantification and flexibility. Meanwhile, the results showed that the influence of climate change would become more severe over time. In 2030, the potential urban area affected by climate change will be 343.60-1260.66 km(2) (5.55 -20.37 % of the total urban area, projected by the no-climate-change-effect scenario). Therefore, the effects of climate change should not be neglected when designing and managing urban landscape.
评估气候变化对城市景观动态（ULD）的影响是适应气候变化和维护城市景观可持续性的基础。本文通过耦合系统动力学（SD）和元胞自动机（CA）模型，展示了一种替代的未来分析方法。模拟并评估了不同气候变化情景对京津冀城市群地区（BTT-MCA）2009 年至 2030 年 ULD 的潜在影响。结果表明，综合模型结合了 SD 和 CA 模型的优势，具有空间量化和灵活性的优势。同时，结果表明，气候变化的影响将随着时间的推移变得更加严重。到 2030 年，受气候变化影响的潜在城市面积将达到 343.60-1260.66 平方公里（占总城市面积的 5.55-20.37%，根据无气候变化影响情景预测）。因此，在设计和管理城市景观时，不应忽视气候变化的影响。
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