Center for Human-Environment System Sustainability (CHESS), State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology (ESPRE), Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
School of Natural Resources, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
Nat Commun. 2021 Aug 3;12(1):4667. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-25026-3.
Urbanization and climate change are together exacerbating water scarcity-where water demand exceeds availability-for the world's cities. We quantify global urban water scarcity in 2016 and 2050 under four socioeconomic and climate change scenarios, and explored potential solutions. Here we show the global urban population facing water scarcity is projected to increase from 933 million (one third of global urban population) in 2016 to 1.693-2.373 billion people (one third to nearly half of global urban population) in 2050, with India projected to be most severely affected in terms of growth in water-scarce urban population (increase of 153-422 million people). The number of large cities exposed to water scarcity is projected to increase from 193 to 193-284, including 10-20 megacities. More than two thirds of water-scarce cities can relieve water scarcity by infrastructure investment, but the potentially significant environmental trade-offs associated with large-scale water scarcity solutions must be guarded against.
城市化和气候变化共同加剧了全球城市的水资源短缺问题，即水资源需求超过了供应量。我们在四种社会经济和气候变化情景下量化了 2016 年和 2050 年的全球城市水资源短缺情况，并探讨了潜在的解决方案。研究结果表明，到 2050 年，面临水资源短缺的全球城市人口预计将从 2016 年的 9.33 亿（全球城市人口的三分之一）增加到 16.93 亿至 23.73 亿（全球城市人口的三分之一到近一半），其中印度预计将受到最严重的影响，面临水资源短缺的城市人口增长 1.53 亿至 4.22 亿。面临水资源短缺的大城市数量预计将从 193 个增加到 193 到 284 个，其中包括 10 到 20 个人口超过 1000 万的特大城市。超过三分之二的水资源短缺城市可以通过基础设施投资来缓解水资源短缺问题，但必须注意防范与大规模水资源短缺解决方案相关的重大环境权衡。
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