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复杂的传播导致了行为与疾病耦合模型中的复杂动态。

Complex contagion leads to complex dynamics in models coupling behaviour and disease.

作者信息

Osborne Matthew, Wang Xueying, Tien Joseph

机构信息

a Math Department , The Ohio State University , Columbus , OH , USA.

b Department of Mathematics and Statistics , Washington State University , Pullman , WA , USA.

出版信息

J Biol Dyn. 2018 Dec;12(1):1035-1058. doi: 10.1080/17513758.2018.1549278.

Abstract

Models coupling behaviour and disease as two unique but interacting contagions have existed since the mid 2000s. In these coupled contagion models, behaviour is typically treated as a 'simple contagion'. However, the means of behaviour spread may in fact be more complex. We develop a family of disease-behaviour coupled contagion compartmental models in order to examine the effect of behavioural contagion type on disease-behaviour dynamics. Coupled contagion models treating behaviour as a simple contagion and a complex contagion are investigated, showing that behavioural contagion type can have a significant impact on dynamics. We find that a simple contagion behaviour leads to simple dynamics, while a complex contagion behaviour supports complex dynamics with the possibility of bistability and periodic orbits.

摘要

自21世纪中叶以来,就存在将行为和疾病作为两种独特但相互作用的传染病进行耦合的模型。在这些耦合传染病模型中,行为通常被视为一种“简单传染病”。然而,行为传播的方式实际上可能更为复杂。我们开发了一系列疾病 - 行为耦合传染病 compartments 模型,以研究行为传染类型对疾病 - 行为动态的影响。研究了将行为视为简单传染病和复杂传染病的耦合传染病模型,结果表明行为传染类型会对动态产生重大影响。我们发现,简单传染行为会导致简单动态,而复杂传染行为则支持具有双稳态和周期轨道可能性的复杂动态。 (注:原文中“compartments”可能有误,推测应为“compartmental”,意为“分区的、 compartmentalize 模型即分区模型” )

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