Peckham Robert
Centre for the Humanities and Medicine, Faculty of Arts and Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, B926, 9F, Run Run Shaw Tower, Centennial Campus, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong SAR, China.
J Public Health (Oxf). 2014 Mar;36(1):13-7. doi: 10.1093/pubmed/fdt083. Epub 2013 Aug 21.
Since the 1990s, economists have drawn on the epidemiology of emerging infectious diseases to explain the diffusion of shock through an increasingly complex financial system. The successful coordination of public health responses to disease threats, and in particular the epidemiological modelling underpinning infection control, has influenced economists' understanding of the risks posed to the stability of the financial system by 'contagion'. While the exportation of analytic models and frames of reference can be fruitful, reinvigorating the destination domain, such analogizing can have a distorting effect. There are differences between biological and financial systems. Moreover, the migration of highly context-specific epidemiological models may undermine the basis of the analogy. Finally, there may be repercussions for the efficacy of public health in the way that its aims are misconstrued in financial analyses.
自20世纪90年代以来，经济学家借鉴新发传染病的流行病学知识，来解释冲击如何通过日益复杂的金融体系进行扩散。公共卫生应对疾病威胁的成功协调，尤其是支撑感染控制的流行病学建模，影响了经济学家对“传染”给金融体系稳定性带来的风险的理解。虽然分析模型和参照框架的输出可能富有成效，能为目标领域注入活力，但这种类比可能会产生扭曲效应。生物系统和金融系统存在差异。此外，高度依赖具体情境的流行病学模型的迁移，可能会破坏类比的基础。最后，公共卫生目标在金融分析中被误解的方式，可能会对公共卫生的效力产生影响。
