Sarhadi Ali, Ausín María Concepción, Wiper Michael P, Touma Danielle, Diffenbaugh Noah S
Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
Sci Adv. 2018 Nov 28;4(11):eaau3487. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aau3487. eCollection 2018 Nov.
We present a framework for quantifying the spatial and temporal co-occurrence of climate stresses in a nonstationary climate. We find that, globally, anthropogenic climate forcing has doubled the joint probability of years that are both warm and dry in the same location (relative to the 1961-1990 baseline). In addition, the joint probability that key crop and pasture regions simultaneously experience severely warm conditions in conjunction with dry years has also increased, including high statistical confidence that human influence has increased the probability of previously unprecedented co-occurring combinations. Further, we find that ambitious emissions mitigation, such as that in the United Nations Paris Agreement, substantially curbs increases in the probability that extremely hot years co-occur with low precipitation simultaneously in multiple regions. Our methodology can be applied to other climate variables, providing critical insight for a number of sectors that are accustomed to deploying resources based on historical probabilities.
我们提出了一个框架，用于量化非平稳气候中气候压力的时空共现情况。我们发现，在全球范围内，人为气候强迫使同一地点同时出现温暖和干燥年份的联合概率增加了一倍（相对于1961 - 1990年基线）。此外，主要农作物和牧场地区同时经历严重温暖条件并伴有干旱年份的联合概率也有所增加，包括有很高的统计置信度表明人类影响增加了以前前所未有的同时出现组合的概率。此外，我们发现，如联合国《巴黎协定》中那样雄心勃勃的减排措施，大幅抑制了多个地区极热年份与低降水量同时出现的概率增加。我们的方法可以应用于其他气候变量，为许多习惯于根据历史概率部署资源的部门提供关键见解。
