Arreyndip Nkongho Ayuketang, Pal Jeremy S
Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics, and Statistics, Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Venice, Italy.
CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Economic Analysis of Climate Impacts and Policy Division, Venice (VE), Italy.
PLoS One. 2025 May 28;20(5):e0323379. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0323379. eCollection 2025.
Given the recent increase in geopolitical tensions between major agricultural producers and weather extremes, there is a likelihood that geopolitical conflict will occur simultaneously with weather extremes, leading to devastating production losses between the conflicting parties. These losses can affect the entire food supply chain, leading to food shortages and price increases in regional markets. This paper models the impact of these concurrent events on the global food market, using the Russian-Ukrainian war and the extreme heatwaves of summer 2022 as a case study. The model considers four war scenarios: the start of the invasion, the peak of the war, Ukraine's resistance, sanctions against Russia, and refugee crises in Europe. Using data from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), Statista, WITS, and Acclimate production value losses, the results show that the agricultural sectors of southern European countries such as France, Italy, and Spain were the most affected by the extreme events, although the direct impact of refugees was smaller compared to their northern counterparts. Strict sanctions against Russia coupled with Ukraine's resistance will benefit EU food markets, but at the same time the agricultural sectors of smaller countries and weaker economies, particularly those of Russia's allies, will be highly vulnerable. This study suggests that when developing and adopting conflict resolution strategies, their impact on weak economies should not be overlooked. An example of this policy recommendation is the continuous renewal of the Black Sea Grain Initiative to stabilize global food prices.
鉴于近期主要农产品生产国之间地缘政治紧张局势加剧以及极端天气频发，地缘政治冲突有可能与极端天气同时发生，导致冲突各方遭受毁灭性的生产损失。这些损失会影响整个食品供应链，引发地区市场粮食短缺和价格上涨。本文以俄乌战争和2022年夏季极端热浪为例，对这些并发事件对全球食品市场的影响进行建模。该模型考虑了四种战争情景：入侵开始、战争高峰期、乌克兰的抵抗、对俄罗斯的制裁以及欧洲的难民危机。利用美国农业部（USDA）、Statista、世界综合贸易解决方案（WITS）的数据以及适应气候变化的产值损失，结果表明，法国、意大利和西班牙等南欧国家的农业部门受极端事件影响最大，不过与北欧国家相比，难民的直接影响较小。对俄罗斯的严厉制裁加上乌克兰的抵抗将使欧盟食品市场受益，但与此同时，较小国家和经济较弱国家的农业部门，尤其是俄罗斯盟友的农业部门，将极易受到冲击。这项研究表明，在制定和采取冲突解决策略时，不应忽视其对弱经济体的影响。这一政策建议的一个例子是持续更新黑海粮食倡议以稳定全球粮食价格。
