• 文献检索
  • 文档翻译
  • 深度研究
  • 学术资讯
  • Suppr Zotero 插件Zotero 插件
  • 邀请有礼
  • 套餐&价格
  • 历史记录
应用&插件
Suppr Zotero 插件Zotero 插件浏览器插件Mac 客户端Windows 客户端微信小程序
定价
高级版会员购买积分包购买API积分包
服务
文献检索文档翻译深度研究API 文档MCP 服务
关于我们
关于 Suppr公司介绍联系我们用户协议隐私条款
关注我们

Suppr 超能文献

核心技术专利:CN118964589B侵权必究
粤ICP备2023148730 号-1Suppr @ 2026

文献检索

告别复杂PubMed语法,用中文像聊天一样搜索,搜遍4000万医学文献。AI智能推荐,让科研检索更轻松。

立即免费搜索

文件翻译

保留排版,准确专业,支持PDF/Word/PPT等文件格式,支持 12+语言互译。

免费翻译文档

深度研究

AI帮你快速写综述,25分钟生成高质量综述,智能提取关键信息,辅助科研写作。

立即免费体验

解析中国气候变化引发的复合型低太阳能-低风能极端事件

Unraveling climate change-induced compound low-solar-low-wind extremes in China.

作者信息

Wang Licheng, Liu Yawen, Zhao Lei, Lu Xi, Huang Liangdian, Jin Yana, Davis Steven J, Aghakouchak Amir, Huang Xin, Zhu Tong, Qin Yue

机构信息

College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.

Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.

出版信息

Natl Sci Rev. 2024 Nov 25;12(1):nwae424. doi: 10.1093/nsr/nwae424. eCollection 2025 Jan.

DOI:10.1093/nsr/nwae424
PMID:39790104
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11715666/
Abstract

China's pursuit of carbon neutrality targets hinges on a profound shift towards low-carbon energy, primarily reliant on intermittent and variable, yet crucial, solar and wind power sources. In particular, low-solar-low-wind (LSLW) compound extremes present a critical yet largely ignored threat to the reliability of renewable electricity generation. While existing studies have largely evaluated the impacts of average climate-induced changes in renewable energy resources, comprehensive analyses of the compound extremes and, particularly, the underpinning dynamic mechanisms remain scarce. Here we show the dynamic evolution of compound LSLW extremes and their underlying mechanisms across China via coupling multi-model simulations with diagnostic analysis. Our results unveil a strong topographic dependence in the frequency of compound LSLW extremes, with a national average frequency of 16.4 (10th-90th percentile interval ranges from 5.3 to 32.6) days/yr, when renewable energy resources in eastern China are particularly compromised (∼80% lower than that under an average climate). We reveal a striking increase in the frequency of LSLW extremes, ranging from 12.4% under SSP126 to 60.2% under SSP370, primarily driven by both renewable energy resource declines and increasingly heavily-tailed distributions, resulting from weakened meridional temperature (pressure) gradient, increased frequency of extremely dense cloud cover and additional distinctive influence of increased aerosols under SSP370. Our study underscores the urgency of preparing for significantly heightened occurrences of LSLW events in a warmer future, emphasizing that such climate-induced compound LSLW extreme changes are not simply by chance, but rather projectable, thereby underscoring the need for proactive adaptation strategies. Such insights are crucial for countries navigating a similar transition towards renewable energy.

摘要

中国对碳中和目标的追求取决于向低碳能源的深刻转变,主要依赖间歇性且多变但至关重要的太阳能和风能。特别是,低太阳能-低风能(LSLW)复合极端事件对可再生能源发电的可靠性构成了重大但在很大程度上被忽视的威胁。虽然现有研究大多评估了平均气候引起的可再生能源资源变化的影响,但对复合极端事件,尤其是其潜在动态机制的全面分析仍然匮乏。在此,我们通过将多模型模拟与诊断分析相结合,展示了中国境内LSLW复合极端事件及其潜在机制的动态演变。我们的结果揭示了LSLW复合极端事件频率存在强烈的地形依赖性,全国平均频率为每年16.4天(第10百分位数至第90百分位数区间为5.3至32.6天/年),此时中国东部的可再生能源资源受到特别严重的影响(比平均气候条件下低约80%)。我们发现LSLW极端事件的频率显著增加,在SSP126情景下增加了12.4%,在SSP370情景下增加了60.2%,这主要是由可再生能源资源减少和分布尾部越来越重共同驱动的,后者是由经向温度(压力)梯度减弱、极密集云层覆盖频率增加以及SSP370情景下气溶胶增加的额外显著影响所致。我们的研究强调了在未来气候变暖的情况下,为LSLW事件显著增加做好准备的紧迫性,强调这种由气候引起的复合LSLW极端变化并非偶然,而是可预测的,从而凸显了积极适应策略的必要性。这些见解对于正在向可再生能源转型的国家至关重要。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/cf6c/11715666/47a7c74883e3/nwae424fig6.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/cf6c/11715666/c1e7363fe0d2/nwae424fig1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/cf6c/11715666/78d0e3c6b357/nwae424fig2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/cf6c/11715666/dee047ca3812/nwae424fig3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/cf6c/11715666/c7abeb573b1e/nwae424fig4.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/cf6c/11715666/bcb0cd20a75c/nwae424fig5.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/cf6c/11715666/47a7c74883e3/nwae424fig6.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/cf6c/11715666/c1e7363fe0d2/nwae424fig1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/cf6c/11715666/78d0e3c6b357/nwae424fig2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/cf6c/11715666/dee047ca3812/nwae424fig3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/cf6c/11715666/c7abeb573b1e/nwae424fig4.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/cf6c/11715666/bcb0cd20a75c/nwae424fig5.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/cf6c/11715666/47a7c74883e3/nwae424fig6.jpg

相似文献

1
Unraveling climate change-induced compound low-solar-low-wind extremes in China.解析中国气候变化引发的复合型低太阳能-低风能极端事件
Natl Sci Rev. 2024 Nov 25;12(1):nwae424. doi: 10.1093/nsr/nwae424. eCollection 2025 Jan.
2
The 2023 Latin America report of the Countdown on health and climate change: the imperative for health-centred climate-resilient development.《2023年健康与气候变化倒计时拉丁美洲报告:以健康为中心的气候适应型发展的必要性》
Lancet Reg Health Am. 2024 Apr 23;33:100746. doi: 10.1016/j.lana.2024.100746. eCollection 2024 May.
3
Potential impacts of climate change on renewable energy in Egypt.气候变化对埃及可再生能源的潜在影响。
Environ Monit Assess. 2024 Feb 14;196(3):268. doi: 10.1007/s10661-024-12428-1.
4
Climate change impacts on the extreme power shortage events of wind-solar supply systems worldwide during 1980-2022.气候变化对1980 - 2022年全球范围内风能太阳能供应系统的极端电力短缺事件的影响。
Nat Commun. 2024 Jun 18;15(1):5225. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-48966-y.
5
Wind and Solar Resource Droughts in California Highlight the Benefits of Long-Term Storage and Integration with the Western Interconnect.加州的风能和太阳能资源短缺凸显了长期存储和与西部互联电网集成的好处。
Environ Sci Technol. 2021 May 4;55(9):6214-6226. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.0c07848. Epub 2021 Apr 6.
6
Investigation of carbon footprint effect of renewable power plants regarding energy production: A case study of a city in Turkey.可再生能源发电厂能源生产的碳足迹效应调查:以土耳其某城市为例。
J Air Waste Manag Assoc. 2022 Mar;72(3):294-307. doi: 10.1080/10962247.2022.2028690. Epub 2022 Feb 7.
7
China's climate and energy policy: at a turning point?中国的气候与能源政策:正处于转折点?
Int Environ Agreem. 2021;21(1):9-23. doi: 10.1007/s10784-021-09528-5. Epub 2021 Feb 13.
8
Examining nonlinear effects of socioecological drivers on urban solar energy development in China using machine learning and high-dimensional data.利用机器学习和高维数据检验中国社会生态驱动因素对城市太阳能发展的非线性影响。
J Environ Manage. 2024 Jun;360:121092. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121092. Epub 2024 May 10.
9
Exploring the role of coal consumption, solar, and wind power generation on ecological footprint: evidence from India using Fourier ADL cointegration test.探索煤炭消费、太阳能和风能发电对生态足迹的作用:来自印度的基于傅里叶自回归分布滞后协整检验的证据。
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Feb;30(9):24077-24087. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-23910-z. Epub 2022 Nov 5.
10
Spatial integration framework of solar, wind, and hydropower energy potential in Southeast Asia.东南亚太阳能、风能和水能潜力的空间综合框架。
Sci Rep. 2023 Jan 7;13(1):340. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-25570-y.

引用本文的文献

1
Strategies for climate-resilient global wind and solar power systems.具备气候适应能力的全球风能和太阳能发电系统策略。
Nature. 2025 Jul;643(8074):1263-1270. doi: 10.1038/s41586-025-09266-7. Epub 2025 Jun 18.

本文引用的文献

1
Climate change impacts on the extreme power shortage events of wind-solar supply systems worldwide during 1980-2022.气候变化对1980 - 2022年全球范围内风能太阳能供应系统的极端电力短缺事件的影响。
Nat Commun. 2024 Jun 18;15(1):5225. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-48966-y.
2
Spatially resolved land and grid model of carbon neutrality in China.中国碳中和的空间分辨土地与网格模型
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2024 Mar 5;121(10):e2306517121. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2306517121. Epub 2024 Feb 26.
3
Surface Wind Speed Changes and Their Potential Impact on Wind Energy Resources Across China During 1961-2021.
1961 - 2021年中国地表风速变化及其对风能资源的潜在影响
Geohealth. 2023 Aug 14;7(8):e2023GH000861. doi: 10.1029/2023GH000861. eCollection 2023 Aug.
4
Accelerating the energy transition towards photovoltaic and wind in China.加速中国向光伏和风力发电的能源转型。
Nature. 2023 Jul;619(7971):761-767. doi: 10.1038/s41586-023-06180-8. Epub 2023 Jul 26.
5
Climate change impact on photovoltaic power potential in China based on CMIP6 models.基于CMIP6模型的气候变化对中国光伏发电潜力的影响
Sci Total Environ. 2023 Feb 1;858(Pt 1):159776. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159776. Epub 2022 Oct 26.
6
Geophysical constraints on the reliability of solar and wind power worldwide.全球太阳能和风能发电可靠性的地球物理限制因素。
Nat Commun. 2021 Oct 22;12(1):6146. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-26355-z.
7
India's potential for integrating solar and on- and offshore wind power into its energy system.印度将太阳能、陆上和海上风电整合到其能源系统中的潜力。
Nat Commun. 2020 Sep 21;11(1):4750. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-18318-7.
8
Multidimensional risk in a nonstationary climate: Joint probability of increasingly severe warm and dry conditions.非平稳气候中的多维风险:日益严重的温暖和干燥状况的联合概率
Sci Adv. 2018 Nov 28;4(11):eaau3487. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aau3487. eCollection 2018 Nov.
9
Wind-generated Electricity in China: Decreasing Potential, Inter-annual Variability and Association with Changing Climate.中国的风力发电:潜力下降、年际变化及与气候变化的关联
Sci Rep. 2017 Nov 24;7(1):16294. doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-16073-2.
10
Dependence of drivers affects risks associated with compound events.驾驶员的依赖性会影响与复合事件相关的风险。
Sci Adv. 2017 Jun 28;3(6):e1700263. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.1700263. eCollection 2017 Jun.