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解析中国气候变化引发的复合型低太阳能-低风能极端事件

Unraveling climate change-induced compound low-solar-low-wind extremes in China.

作者信息

Wang Licheng, Liu Yawen, Zhao Lei, Lu Xi, Huang Liangdian, Jin Yana, Davis Steven J, Aghakouchak Amir, Huang Xin, Zhu Tong, Qin Yue

机构信息

College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.

Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.

出版信息

Natl Sci Rev. 2024 Nov 25;12(1):nwae424. doi: 10.1093/nsr/nwae424. eCollection 2025 Jan.

Abstract

China's pursuit of carbon neutrality targets hinges on a profound shift towards low-carbon energy, primarily reliant on intermittent and variable, yet crucial, solar and wind power sources. In particular, low-solar-low-wind (LSLW) compound extremes present a critical yet largely ignored threat to the reliability of renewable electricity generation. While existing studies have largely evaluated the impacts of average climate-induced changes in renewable energy resources, comprehensive analyses of the compound extremes and, particularly, the underpinning dynamic mechanisms remain scarce. Here we show the dynamic evolution of compound LSLW extremes and their underlying mechanisms across China via coupling multi-model simulations with diagnostic analysis. Our results unveil a strong topographic dependence in the frequency of compound LSLW extremes, with a national average frequency of 16.4 (10th-90th percentile interval ranges from 5.3 to 32.6) days/yr, when renewable energy resources in eastern China are particularly compromised (∼80% lower than that under an average climate). We reveal a striking increase in the frequency of LSLW extremes, ranging from 12.4% under SSP126 to 60.2% under SSP370, primarily driven by both renewable energy resource declines and increasingly heavily-tailed distributions, resulting from weakened meridional temperature (pressure) gradient, increased frequency of extremely dense cloud cover and additional distinctive influence of increased aerosols under SSP370. Our study underscores the urgency of preparing for significantly heightened occurrences of LSLW events in a warmer future, emphasizing that such climate-induced compound LSLW extreme changes are not simply by chance, but rather projectable, thereby underscoring the need for proactive adaptation strategies. Such insights are crucial for countries navigating a similar transition towards renewable energy.

摘要

中国对碳中和目标的追求取决于向低碳能源的深刻转变,主要依赖间歇性且多变但至关重要的太阳能和风能。特别是,低太阳能-低风能(LSLW)复合极端事件对可再生能源发电的可靠性构成了重大但在很大程度上被忽视的威胁。虽然现有研究大多评估了平均气候引起的可再生能源资源变化的影响,但对复合极端事件,尤其是其潜在动态机制的全面分析仍然匮乏。在此,我们通过将多模型模拟与诊断分析相结合,展示了中国境内LSLW复合极端事件及其潜在机制的动态演变。我们的结果揭示了LSLW复合极端事件频率存在强烈的地形依赖性,全国平均频率为每年16.4天(第10百分位数至第90百分位数区间为5.3至32.6天/年),此时中国东部的可再生能源资源受到特别严重的影响(比平均气候条件下低约80%)。我们发现LSLW极端事件的频率显著增加,在SSP126情景下增加了12.4%,在SSP370情景下增加了60.2%,这主要是由可再生能源资源减少和分布尾部越来越重共同驱动的,后者是由经向温度(压力)梯度减弱、极密集云层覆盖频率增加以及SSP370情景下气溶胶增加的额外显著影响所致。我们的研究强调了在未来气候变暖的情况下,为LSLW事件显著增加做好准备的紧迫性,强调这种由气候引起的复合LSLW极端变化并非偶然,而是可预测的,从而凸显了积极适应策略的必要性。这些见解对于正在向可再生能源转型的国家至关重要。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/cf6c/11715666/c1e7363fe0d2/nwae424fig1.jpg

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