Zhang Juping, Jing Wenjun, Zhang Wenyi, Jin Zhen
Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006, China.
Shanxi Key Laboratory of Mathematical Techniques and Big Data Analysis on Disease Control and Prevention, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006, China.
Comput Math Methods Med. 2018 Nov 4;2018:7383170. doi: 10.1155/2018/7383170. eCollection 2018.
In order to analyze the spread of avian influenza A (H7N9), we construct an avian influenza transmission model from poultry (including poultry farm, backyard poultry farm, live-poultry wholesale market, and wet market) to human according to poultry transport network. We obtain the threshold value for the prevalence of avian influenza A (H7N9) and also give the existence and number of the boundary equilibria and endemic equilibria in different conditions. We can see that poultry transport network plays an important role in controlling avian influenza A (H7N9). Finally, numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the effects of poultry in different places on avian influenza. In order to reduce human infections in China, our results suggest that closing the retail live-poultry market or preventing the poultry of backyard poultry farm into the live-poultry market is feasible in a suitable condition.
为了分析甲型H7N9禽流感的传播情况，我们根据家禽运输网络构建了一个从家禽（包括家禽养殖场、家庭后院家禽养殖、活禽批发市场和湿货市场）到人类的禽流感传播模型。我们得到了甲型H7N9禽流感流行的阈值，并给出了不同条件下边界平衡点和地方病平衡点的存在性及数量。可以看出，家禽运输网络在控制甲型H7N9禽流感方面起着重要作用。最后，通过数值模拟来说明不同场所的家禽对禽流感的影响。为了减少中国的人类感染，我们的结果表明，在适当条件下，关闭零售活禽市场或阻止家庭后院养殖的家禽进入活禽市场是可行的。
