Trimbos Institute, The Netherlands Institute of Mental Health and Addiction, Da Costakade 45, 3521VS, Utrecht, the Netherlands; Department of Research, Arkin Mental Health Care, Klaprozenweg 111, 1033NN, Amsterdam, the Netherlands; Amsterdam UMC, Location AMC, Department of Psychiatry, University of Amsterdam, Meibergdreef 9, 1105AZ, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Trimbos Institute, The Netherlands Institute of Mental Health and Addiction, Da Costakade 45, 3521VS, Utrecht, the Netherlands.
Int J Drug Policy. 2019 Feb;64:34-39. doi: 10.1016/j.drugpo.2018.11.016. Epub 2018 Dec 12.
Users of new psychoactive substances including 4-fluoroamphetamine (4-FA/4-FMP) frequently share their experiences or opinions in online drug forums. We have tested the potential of computerised analysis of drug users' forum posts for monitoring and early detection of trends. Specifically, we tested whether changes in the volume of 4-FA related posts and sentiments expressed in those posts can be observed around the time 4-FA was increasingly reported by Dutch drug monitoring sources (2012-2017).
Opening posts from two popular Dutch internet-based drug discussion forums, written between January 1 st, 2012 and January 1 st, 2018 were scraped: Portions of the forum posts about 4-FA were collected. To contrast 4-FA findings against other categories of forum posts, we also collected posts on two other substances (ecstasy and cocaine) and posts not related to a specific substance. Sentiments expressed in these posts were inferred using text recognition software, and analysed for trends using linear mixed modelling.
The number of 4-FA posts increased between 2012 and 2015: 76 posts in 2012, 138 in 2013, 322 in 2014, 323 in 2015, and decreased thereafter: 264 in 2016 and 135 in 2017; X(5) = 271.8, p < .001. Over time, a decrease in positive sentiment towards 4-FA can be observed starting in 2015, compared to the period before 2015, coinciding with more news searches and reports on adverse events related to 4-FA use. Linear mixed modelling analysis confirmed a significantly higher sentiment score in 2015 compared to 2017 for 4-FA, B = 0.062; SE = 0.023; t(1252) = 2.70; p = 0.007, but not for posts on other substances.
Changes in the volume and sentiments of forum posts coincided with news media exposure related to 4-FA and with trends observed by established drug monitoring sources. Hence, internet forum monitoring facilitates early discovery of trends in the popularity, prevalence and adverse events related to new psychoactive substances.
包括 4-氟苯丙胺（4-FA/4-FMP）在内的新型精神活性物质使用者经常在在线毒品论坛上分享他们的经验或意见。我们已经测试了通过计算机分析毒品使用者论坛帖子来监测和及早发现趋势的潜力。具体来说，我们测试了在荷兰毒品监测机构（2012-2017 年）越来越多地报告 4-FA 时，4-FA 相关帖子的数量和这些帖子中表达的情绪是否会发生变化。
从两个受欢迎的荷兰基于互联网的毒品讨论论坛中刮取了 2012 年 1 月 1 日至 2018 年 1 月 1 日之间发布的帖子：收集了关于 4-FA 的论坛帖子的部分内容。为了将 4-FA 的发现与其他类别的论坛帖子进行对比，我们还收集了关于两种其他物质（摇头丸和可卡因）和与特定物质无关的帖子的帖子。使用文本识别软件推断出这些帖子中表达的情绪，并使用线性混合模型进行趋势分析。
2012 年至 2015 年间，4-FA 帖子的数量增加：2012 年 76 篇，2013 年 138 篇，2014 年 322 篇，2015 年 323 篇，此后减少：2016 年 264 篇，2017 年 135 篇；X(5)=271.8，p<.001。随着时间的推移，与 2015 年之前相比，2015 年开始观察到对 4-FA 的正面情绪下降，这与更多与 4-FA 使用相关的不良事件的新闻搜索和报告相吻合。线性混合模型分析证实，与 2017 年相比，2015 年 4-FA 的情绪评分明显更高，B=0.062；SE=0.023；t(1252)=2.70；p=0.007，但其他物质的帖子则不然。
论坛帖子数量和情绪的变化与与 4-FA 相关的新闻媒体曝光以及既定毒品监测来源观察到的趋势相吻合。因此，互联网论坛监测有助于及早发现与新型精神活性物质相关的受欢迎程度、流行程度和不良事件的趋势。
