Corkeron Peter, Hamilton Philip, Bannister John, Best Peter, Charlton Claire, Groch Karina R, Findlay Ken, Rowntree Victoria, Vermeulen Els, Pace Richard M
Protected Species Branch, NOAA Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA.
Anderson Cabot Center for Ocean Life, John H. Prescott Marine Laboratory, New England Aquarium, Boston, MA 02110, USA.
R Soc Open Sci. 2018 Nov 7;5(11):180892. doi: 10.1098/rsos.180892. eCollection 2018 Nov.
North Atlantic right whales (NARW), , were nearly exterminated by historical whaling. Their abundance slowly increased up until 2010, to a maximum of fewer than 500 whales, and since then they have been in decline. We assessed the extent to which the relatively slow increase demonstrated by NARW was intrinsic, and how much could be due to anthropogenic impacts. In order to do so, we first compared calf counts of three populations of Southern right whales (SRW), , with that of NARW, over the period 1992-2016. By this index, the annual rate of increase of NARW was approximately one-third of that of SRW. Next we constructed a population projection model for female NARW, using the highest annual survival estimates available from recent mark-resight analysis, and assuming a four-year calving interval. The model results indicated an intrinsic rate of increase of 4% per year, approximately twice that observed, and that adult female mortality is the main factor influencing this rate. Necropsy records demonstrate that anthropogenic mortality is the primary cause of known mortality of NARW. Anthropogenic mortality and morbidity has limited the recovery of NARW, and baseline conditions prior to their recent decline were already jeopardizing NARW recovery.
北大西洋露脊鲸曾因历史上的捕鲸活动而几近灭绝。其数量在2010年之前缓慢增长,最多时不到500头,此后便开始减少。我们评估了北大西洋露脊鲸相对缓慢的增长在多大程度上是其内在因素所致,又有多少可能归因于人为影响。为了做到这一点,我们首先比较了1992年至2016年期间南露脊鲸三个种群的幼鲸数量与北大西洋露脊鲸的幼鲸数量。根据这个指标,北大西洋露脊鲸的年增长率约为南露脊鲸的三分之一。接下来,我们利用最近标记重捕分析得出的最高年度存活率估计值,并假设产犊间隔为四年,构建了一个北大西洋露脊鲸雌鲸种群预测模型。模型结果表明,其内在增长率为每年4%,约为观察到的增长率的两倍,并且成年雌鲸死亡率是影响该增长率的主要因素。尸检记录表明,人为造成的死亡是已知的北大西洋露脊鲸死亡的主要原因。人为造成的死亡和发病限制了北大西洋露脊鲸的数量恢复,而且在其最近数量下降之前的基线状况就已经危及到北大西洋露脊鲸的恢复。