假设错误与高原：对纽曼的回应。
Hypothetical errors and plateaus: A response to Newman.
机构信息
Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley, California, United States of America.
出版信息
PLoS Biol. 2018 Dec 20;16(12):e3000076. doi: 10.1371/journal.pbio.3000076. eCollection 2018 Dec.
Abstract
Newman questions recent claims about a plateau in mortality rates for Italians beyond age 105 on the basis of a hypothetical model. His model implies implausibly high error rates for extreme ages. For individuals over 110, for whom birth certificates have been collected, the form in which Italian births were registered precludes the kinds of clerical errors in year of birth that Newman assumes.
摘要
纽曼根据一个假设模型对意大利人在 105 岁以上死亡率趋于平稳的这一最近发现提出质疑。他的模型意味着高龄人群的错误率高得难以置信。对于 110 岁以上的人，意大利已经收集了他们的出生证明，而意大利人出生登记的表格形式排除了纽曼所假设的那种出生年份的文书错误。
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