College of Urban and Environmental Sciences and Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China.
Department of Geography, Environment, and Spatial Sciences and Center for Global Change and Earth Observations (CGCEO), Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, 48824, USA.
Environ Monit Assess. 2018 Dec 28;191(1):34. doi: 10.1007/s10661-018-7151-z.
Urban expansion is influenced by various natural and anthropogenic factors. Understanding the driving forces of urban expansion is crucial for modeling the process of urban expansion as well as guiding urban planning and management. Here, we quantified and compared the effects of natural, socioeconomic, and neighboring factors on urban expansion and their temporal dynamics in three large cities in the Jing-Jin-Ji Urban Agglomeration: Beijing, Tianjin, and Shijiazhuang. We used remote sensing imagery from six epochs (circa 1980, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010) integrated with GIS techniques and analyzed using binary logistic regression. The relative importance of the three types of driving forces was further decomposed using variance partitioning. We found that the direction and/or magnitude of effects on the drivers of urban expansion varied with both epoch and city. Natural factors placed significant constraints at early stages of urban expansion, but this constraint relaxed over time. As precursor drivers of urbanization, socioeconomic factors significantly influenced urban growth in most epochs for each city. Non-urban lands near existing urban areas were more likely to be urbanized, due to easier access to existing transportation infrastructure and other facility resources. Furthermore, with urbanization, individual effects of drivers tended to be replaced by joint effects, especially for the neighboring factors. Similarities and differences in the individual and joint effects of drivers on urban expansion across cities and through time will provide valuable information for adaptive urban development strategies in the national capital region of China.
城市扩张受到各种自然和人为因素的影响。了解城市扩张的驱动因素对于模拟城市扩张过程以及指导城市规划和管理至关重要。在这里，我们量化并比较了自然、社会经济和邻近因素对京津冀城市群中三个大城市（北京、天津和石家庄）的城市扩张及其时间动态的影响。我们使用了六个时期（约 1980 年、1990 年、1995 年、2000 年、2005 年和 2010 年）的遥感图像，结合 GIS 技术进行了分析，并使用二元逻辑回归进行了分析。使用方差分解进一步分解了这三种类型驱动力的相对重要性。我们发现，城市扩张驱动因素的方向和/或大小随着时期和城市的不同而变化。自然因素在城市扩张的早期阶段对城市扩张产生了显著的限制，但随着时间的推移，这种限制逐渐放松。作为城市化的前导驱动因素，社会经济因素在大多数时期对每个城市的城市增长都有显著影响。由于更容易获得现有的交通基础设施和其他设施资源，现有城市地区附近的非城市土地更有可能被城市化。此外，随着城市化的推进，驱动因素的个体效应往往被共同效应所取代，特别是对于邻近因素。不同城市和不同时期驱动因素对城市扩张的个体和共同效应的相似性和差异性，将为中国国家首都地区的适应性城市发展战略提供有价值的信息。
