School of Geographic Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210046, China.
Lyles School of Civil Engineering, Purdue University, 550 Stadium Mall, West Lafayette, IN 47907, USA.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2019 Jun 30;16(13):2318. doi: 10.3390/ijerph16132318.
Developing countries such as China are undergoing rapid urban expansion and land use change. Urban expansion regulation has been a significant research topic recently, especially in Eastern China, with a high urbanization level. Among others, roads are an important spatial determinant of urban expansion and have significant influences on human activities, the environment, and socioeconomic development. Understanding the urban road network expansion pattern and its corresponding social and environmental effects is a reasonable way to optimize comprehensive urban planning and keep the city sustainable. This paper analyzes the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban road growth and uses spatial statistic models to describe its spatial patterns in rapid developing cities through a case study of Nanjing, China. A kernel density estimation model is used to describe the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of the road network. A geographically weighted regression (GWR) is applied to generate the social and environmental variance influenced by the urban road network expansion. The results reveal that the distribution of the road network shows a morphological character of two horizontal and one vertical concentration lines. From 2012 to 2016, the density of the urban road network increased significantly and developed some obvious focus centers. The development of the urban road network had a strong correlation with socioeconomic and environmental factors, which however, influenced it at different degrees in different districts. This study enhances the understanding of the effects of socio-economic and environmental factors on urban road network expansion, a significant indicator of urban expansion, in different circumstances. The study will provide useful understanding and knowledge to planning departments and other decision makers to maintain sustainable development.
发展中国家如中国正在经历快速的城市扩张和土地利用变化。城市扩张调控是近期一个重要的研究课题，特别是在中国东部，城市化水平较高。其中，道路是城市扩张的重要空间决定因素，对人类活动、环境和社会经济发展都有重大影响。了解城市道路网络的扩张模式及其对社会和环境的相应影响，是优化综合城市规划和保持城市可持续发展的合理途径。本文通过对中国南京的案例研究，分析了城市道路增长的时空动态，并利用空间统计模型描述了快速发展城市的道路网络空间格局。采用核密度估计模型来描述道路网络的时空分布模式。应用地理加权回归（GWR）来生成受城市道路网络扩张影响的社会和环境方差。结果表明，道路网络的分布呈现出两条水平和一条垂直的集中线的形态特征。2012 年至 2016 年，城市道路网密度显著增加，并形成了一些明显的焦点中心。城市道路网络的发展与社会经济和环境因素密切相关，但在不同地区的影响程度不同。本研究增强了对社会经济和环境因素对城市道路网络扩张的影响的理解，道路网络扩张是城市扩张的一个重要指标，在不同情况下具有不同的影响。本研究将为规划部门和其他决策者提供有用的理解和知识，以维持可持续发展。
