Department of Diagnostic Medicine and Pathobiology, College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University, Manhattan, Kansas, United States of America.
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2019 Jan 2;14(1):e0209082. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0209082. eCollection 2019.
Acarological surveys in areas outside the currently believed leading edge of the distribution of lone star ticks (Amblyomma americanum), coupled with recent reports of their identification in previously uninvaded areas in the public health literature, suggest that this species is more broadly distributed in North America than currently understood. Therefore, we evaluated the potential geographic extent under present and future conditions using ecological niche modeling approach based on museum records available for this species at the Walter Reed Biosystematics Unit (WRBU). The median prediction of a best fitting model indicated that lone star ticks are currently likely to be present in broader regions across the Eastern Seaboard as well as in the Upper Midwest, where this species could be expanding its range. Further northward and westward expansion of these ticks can be expected as a result of ongoing climate change, under both low- and high-emissions scenarios.
在目前认为的孤星蜱（Amblyomma americanum）分布前沿以外的地区进行的蜱类学调查，加上最近在公共卫生文献中报道在以前未受入侵的地区发现了它们，表明这种物种在北美的分布范围比目前所理解的要广泛。因此，我们使用基于沃尔特·里德生物系统学单位（WRBU）现有物种的博物馆记录的生态位建模方法，评估了目前和未来条件下的潜在地理范围。最佳拟合模型的中位数预测表明，孤星蜱目前可能广泛存在于东海岸以及中西部地区，在这些地区，这种物种可能正在扩大其分布范围。随着气候变化的持续，在低排放和高排放情景下，这些蜱类有望向北和向西进一步扩张。
