Berger Kathryn A, Pigott David M, Tomlinson Francesca, Godding David, Maurer-Stroh Sebastian, Taye Biruhalem, Sirota Fernanda L, Han Alvin, Lee Raphael T C, Gunalan Vithiagaran, Eisenhaber Frank, Hay Simon I, Russell Colin A
Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom.
Agrimetrics Ltd., Harpenden, United Kingdom.
Open Forum Infect Dis. 2018 Nov 27;5(12):ofy318. doi: 10.1093/ofid/ofy318. eCollection 2018 Dec.
Avian and swine influenza viruses circulate worldwide and pose threats to both animal and human health. The design of global surveillance strategies is hindered by information gaps on the geospatial variation in virus emergence potential and existing surveillance efforts.
We developed a spatial framework to quantify the geographic variation in outbreak emergence potential based on indices of potential for animal-to-human and secondary human-to-human transmission. We then compared our resultant raster model of variation in emergence potential with the global distribution of recent surveillance efforts from 359105 reports of surveillance activities.
Our framework identified regions of Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe, Central America, and sub-Saharan Africa with high potential for influenza virus spillover. In the last 15 years, however, we found that 78.43% and 49.01% of high-risk areas lacked evidence of influenza virus surveillance in swine and domestic poultry, respectively.
Our work highlights priority areas where improved surveillance and outbreak mitigation could enhance pandemic preparedness strategies.
禽流感病毒和猪流感病毒在全球传播，对动物和人类健康均构成威胁。病毒出现可能性的地理空间变异以及现有监测工作方面的信息缺口阻碍了全球监测策略的设计。
我们开发了一个空间框架，基于动物传人及二代人传人的可能性指数来量化疫情爆发可能性的地理变异。然后，我们将得出的疫情爆发可能性变异栅格模型与来自359105份监测活动报告的近期监测工作的全球分布情况进行了比较。
我们的框架确定了东南亚、东欧、中美洲和撒哈拉以南非洲地区具有较高的流感病毒溢出可能性。然而，在过去15年中，我们发现分别有78.43%和49.01%的高风险地区缺乏猪和家禽流感病毒监测的证据。
我们的工作突出了优先区域，在这些区域加强监测和疫情缓解措施可提升大流行防范策略。
