Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University, Via Mersin 10, Famagusta, TRNC, Turkey.
Aviola Consult ltd, 15 Surulere Street, Kabba, 23401, Nigeria.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2019 Mar;26(7):6472-6480. doi: 10.1007/s11356-018-04074-1. Epub 2019 Jan 8.
The urban poor residents in South Africa are over time known for imbalance and inadequate housing amidst recent concern of shock in food production. In studying this peculiar problem, this study investigates the cointegration and long-run equilibrium relationship of population growth, crop production, and the housing price in the country. Empirically, a quarterly data from 1975:Q1 to 2015:Q4 is employed using the conventional Autoregressive Distributed Lag. The investigation shows strong significant evidence of cointegration and a quarterly speed of adjustment of 17.2% to long run in the system. Also, as the population grows, a decline in house price index is experienced in the long run. Although unusual, adequate and sustainable housing plan, demand-supply dynamics, in respect to a country's population expansion could posit observation. But, in the short run, a strongly significant positive association is observed. It shows further that positively short-run and long-run relationships significantly exist between crop production and house price index. In reality, caution is essential in the introduction of land redistribution policy to avoid hampering the housing policies and 2030 housing target of the government.
南非城市贫困居民长期以来住房不平衡和不足，最近人们对粮食生产的冲击感到担忧。在研究这一特殊问题时，本研究调查了人口增长、作物生产和该国房价之间的协整和长期均衡关系。实证方面，使用传统的自回归分布滞后模型，采用 1975 年第一季度至 2015 年第四季度的季度数据。研究结果表明，该系统具有很强的协整证据，且在长期内，调整速度为每季度 17.2%。此外，随着人口增长，房价指数在长期内呈下降趋势。尽管不同寻常，但为了适应一个国家的人口扩张，需要制定充足和可持续的住房计划，考虑到供需动态。然而，在短期内，观察到了强烈的正相关关系。此外，还表明作物生产和房价指数之间存在显著的短期和长期关系。实际上，在引入土地重新分配政策时需要谨慎，以避免阻碍政府的住房政策和 2030 年住房目标。
