BK21PLUS Program in 'Embodiment: Health-Society Interaction', Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
BK21PLUS Program in 'Embodiment: Health-Society Interaction', Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea; Department of Environmental Health, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea; School of Health Policy and Management, College of Health Science, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
Sci Total Environ. 2019 Mar 15;656:986-996. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.210. Epub 2018 Nov 15.
Temporal variation of temperature-related mortality risk is an important issue in climate change era. However, difference in this temporal variation across cities in South Korea remains unclear. The aim of this study was to explore whether temporal variation might differ spatially across seven metropolitan cities of Korea during the period of 1998-2013. We estimated cumulative associations between temperature (up to previous 14 days of exposure) and all-cause mortality, and compared cumulative associations between the first eight years (1998-2005) and the last eight years (2006-2013). Multivariate meta-regression analysis was performed to investigate what factors might be associated with spatial and temporal variation in cumulative associations. We found that Busan, Daegu, and Gwangju experienced decrease in heat effect from 1998-2005 to 2006-2013, while Incheon experienced increase in heat effect. By comparing mortality risk at 99th percentile of temperature to mortality risk at minimum mortality temperature, percentage increase of mortality risk changed from 4.8% (95% CI: -1.3, 11.3) to 0.4% (95% CI: -6.0, 7.4) in Busan, from 17.2% (95% CI: 10.2, 24.7) to 4.0% (95% CI: -1.4, 9.8) in Daegu, from 20.3% (95% CI: 11.5, 29.7) to 2.2% (95% CI: -3.5, 8.3) in Gwangju, and from 3.5% (95% CI: 0.2, 6.8) to 7.9% (95% CI: 5.0, 10.9) in Incheon, respectively. Change in average temperature from 1998-2005 to 2006-2013 was negatively associated with change in heat effect even though average temperature in most of the cities fluctuated over time. We also found that all seven cities had decrease in effect of moderate cold temperature from 1998-2005 to 2006-2013. Such decrease was associated with improvement in medical resources. Results of this study suggest that plans for adaptation to temperature-related risks should differ across populations because adaptation to temperature varies across populations and within the same population over different time.
温度相关死亡率的时间变化是气候变化时代的一个重要问题。然而，韩国各城市之间这种时间变化的差异尚不清楚。本研究的目的是探讨在 1998-2013 年期间，韩国七个大都市区的温度变化是否存在空间差异。我们估计了温度（最长可达暴露前 14 天）与全因死亡率之间的累积关联，并比较了前八年（1998-2005 年）和后八年（2006-2013 年）之间的累积关联。多元荟萃回归分析用于研究哪些因素可能与累积关联的时空变化有关。我们发现，釜山、大邱和光州的高温效应从 1998-2005 年到 2006-2013 年有所降低，而仁川的高温效应则有所增加。通过比较温度第 99 百分位数的死亡率与最低死亡率温度的死亡率，釜山的死亡率风险增加了 4.8%（95%CI：-1.3，11.3）至 0.4%（95%CI：-6.0，7.4），大邱的死亡率风险增加了 17.2%（95%CI：10.2，24.7）至 4.0%（95%CI：-1.4，9.8），光州的死亡率风险增加了 20.3%（95%CI：11.5，29.7）至 2.2%（95%CI：-3.5，8.3），仁川的死亡率风险增加了 3.5%（95%CI：0.2，6.8）至 7.9%（95%CI：5.0，10.9）。1998-2005 年至 2006-2013 年期间平均温度的变化与高温效应的变化呈负相关，尽管大多数城市的平均温度随时间波动。我们还发现，从 1998-2005 年到 2006-2013 年，这七个城市的中度寒冷温度效应都有所减弱。这种减少与医疗资源的改善有关。本研究结果表明，由于人群之间的适应情况不同，且同一人群在不同时期的适应情况也不同，因此针对与温度相关风险的适应计划应因人群而异。
