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通过脑胎盘比值和产妇特征预测晚期产前胎儿死亡是否可能?

Is it possible to predict late antepartum stillbirth by means of cerebroplacental ratio and maternal characteristics?

机构信息

Servicio de Obstetricia y Ginecología, Hospital Universitario y Politécnico La Fe, Valencia, Spain.

Department of Pediatrics, Obstetrics and Gynecology, Universidad de Valencia, Valencia, Spain.

出版信息

J Matern Fetal Neonatal Med. 2020 Sep;33(17):2996-3002. doi: 10.1080/14767058.2019.1566900. Epub 2019 Jan 23.

DOI:10.1080/14767058.2019.1566900
PMID:30672365
Abstract

To examine the potential value of fetal ultrasound and maternal characteristics in the prediction of antepartum stillbirth after 32 weeks' gestation. This was a retrospective multicenter study in Spain. In 29 pregnancies, umbilical artery pulsatility index (UA PI), middle cerebral artery pulsatility index (MCA PI), cerebroplacental ratio (CPR), estimated fetal weight (EFW), and maternal characteristics were recorded within 15 days prior to a stillbirth. The values of UA PI, MCA PI, and CPR were converted into multiples of the normal median (MoM) for gestational age and the EFW was expressed as percentile according to a Spanish reference range for gestational age. Data from the 29 pregnancies with stillbirths and 2298 control pregnancies resulting in livebirths were compared and multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determine significant predictors of stillbirth. The only significant predictor of stillbirth was CPR (OR = 0.161, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.035, 0.654;  = .014); the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was 0.663 (95% CI 0.545, 0.782) and the detection rate (DR) was 32.14% at a 10% false-positive rate (FPR). In addition, when we included MCA and UA PI MoM instead of CPR, only MCA PI MoM was significant (OR = 0.104, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.013, 0.735;  = .029), with similar prediction abilities (area under the curve (AUC) 0.645, DR 28.6%, FPR 10%). The CPR and MCA PI are predictors of late stillbirth but the performance of prediction is poor.

摘要

探讨胎儿超声和产妇特征在预测 32 周后产前死胎中的潜在价值。这是西班牙的一项回顾性多中心研究。在 29 例死胎妊娠中,在死胎发生前 15 天内记录脐动脉搏动指数(UA PI)、大脑中动脉搏动指数(MCA PI)、脑胎盘比(CPR)、估计胎儿体重(EFW)和产妇特征。UA PI、MCA PI 和 CPR 的值转换为与胎龄正常中位数(MoM)的倍数,EFW 则根据西班牙胎龄参考范围表示为百分位数。将死胎妊娠 29 例与活产的 2298 例对照妊娠进行比较,并进行多变量逻辑回归分析以确定死胎的显著预测因素。唯一与死胎显著相关的预测因素是 CPR(OR = 0.161,95%置信区间 [CI] 0.035,0.654;  = .014);ROC 曲线下面积为 0.663(95%CI 0.545,0.782),假阳性率(FPR)为 10%时的检出率(DR)为 32.14%。此外,当我们纳入 MCA 和 UA PI MoM 而不是 CPR 时,只有 MCA PI MoM 具有统计学意义(OR = 0.104,95%CI 0.013,0.735;  = .029),具有相似的预测能力(曲线下面积(AUC)为 0.645,DR 为 28.6%,FPR 为 10%)。CPR 和 MCA PI 是预测晚期死胎的指标,但预测效果不佳。

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