CREED - Amsterdam School of Economics, and Amsterdam Brain and Cognition, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences, and Computation and Neural Systems Program, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2019 Jan 24;14(1):e0211018. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0211018. eCollection 2019.
Incidental emotions are defined as feelings that are unrelated to a decision task at hand and thereby not normatively relevant for making choices. The precise influence and formal theoretical implications of incidental emotions regarding financial risk taking are still largely unclear. An effect of incidental emotion on decision-making would challenge the main extant formal theoretical economic models because such models do not allow for an effect of incidental emotions. As financial risk taking is pervasive in modern economies, the role of incidental emotions is an important issue. The goal of this experimental study is threefold. First, we examine the impact of incidental fear on the choice between a sure and a risky monetary option. A well-validated method of fear induction, using electric shocks, is employed for that purpose. Based on emotion studies we hypothesize less risk taking under fear and more risk taking when relieved of fear. Our second goal is to investigate the relative performance of the main existing formal theoretical economic models (based on Expected Utility Theory, Prospect Theory, or the Mean-Variance model) in explaining the behavioral data. We also investigate how these models can be adjusted to accommodate any observed influence of incidental emotion. For that reason, we first theoretically model the potential pathways of incidental fear (and the relief thereof) via the valuation of the choice option rewards or risk-assessment. We then estimate the relevant parameters allowing for both additive as well as interactive effects. Our third and final goal is to explore the neural basis of any observed influence of incidental emotions on decision-making by means of a model-based fMRI analysis, using the findings of existing neuroeconomic studies as the basis for our hypotheses. Our results indicate that the relief of fear can give a substantial boost to financial risk taking (suggestive of exuberance). This impact is best captured by Prospect Theory if we allow for an increase in participants' valuation of option outcomes when relieved of fear. Moreover, this impact is manifested at the neural level by the activity of the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC), a brain area widely regarded as being central for valuation.
偶然情绪是指与手头决策任务无关的感觉，因此对于做出选择没有规范相关性。偶然情绪对金融风险承担的精确影响和正式理论意义在很大程度上仍不清楚。偶然情绪对决策的影响将挑战主要现有的正式理论经济模型，因为这些模型不允许偶然情绪产生影响。由于金融风险承担在现代经济中普遍存在，因此偶然情绪的作用是一个重要问题。本实验研究的目的有三。首先，我们考察了偶然恐惧对在确定的和有风险的货币选项之间进行选择的影响。为此，采用了一种经过充分验证的使用电击来引起恐惧的方法。基于情绪研究，我们假设在恐惧下风险承担较低，而在恐惧缓解时风险承担较高。我们的第二个目标是调查主要现有正式理论经济模型（基于期望效用理论、前景理论或均值-方差模型）在解释行为数据方面的相对表现。我们还研究了如何调整这些模型以适应观察到的偶然情绪的任何影响。为此，我们首先从理论上对偶然恐惧（及其缓解）通过对选择选项奖励的评估或风险评估的潜在途径进行建模。然后，我们允许添加和交互作用来估计相关参数。我们的第三个也是最后一个目标是通过基于模型的 fMRI 分析探索观察到的偶然情绪对决策的任何影响的神经基础，使用现有神经经济学研究的结果作为我们假设的基础。我们的研究结果表明，恐惧的缓解可以极大地促进金融风险承担（暗示过度自信）。如果我们允许参与者在恐惧缓解时增加对选项结果的评估，那么 Prospect 理论可以很好地捕捉到这种影响。此外，这种影响在神经水平上表现为腹内侧前额叶皮层（vmPFC）的活动，该大脑区域被广泛认为是评估的核心。
