Sun Li, Stojadinovic Bozidar, Sansavini Giovanni
Chair of Structural Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, Institute of Structural Engineering, ETH Zurich, Switzerland.
Laboratory of Reliability and Risk Engineering, Institute of Energy Technology, ETH Zurich, Switzerland.
Risk Anal. 2019 Jul;39(7):1597-1614. doi: 10.1111/risa.13277. Epub 2019 Jan 30.
In this article, an agent-based framework to quantify the seismic resilience of an electric power supply system (EPSS) and the community it serves is presented. Within the framework, the loss and restoration of the EPSS power generation and delivery capacity and of the power demand from the served community are used to assess the electric power deficit during the damage absorption and recovery processes. Damage to the components of the EPSS and of the community-built environment is evaluated using the seismic fragility functions. The restoration of the community electric power demand is evaluated using the seismic recovery functions. However, the postearthquake EPSS recovery process is modeled using an agent-based model with two agents, the EPSS Operator and the Community Administrator. The resilience of the EPSS-community system is quantified using direct, EPSS-related, societal, and community-related indicators. Parametric studies are carried out to quantify the influence of different seismic hazard scenarios, agent characteristics, and power dispatch strategies on the EPSS-community seismic resilience. The use of the agent-based modeling framework enabled a rational formulation of the postearthquake recovery phase and highlighted the interaction between the EPSS and the community in the recovery process not quantified in resilience models developed to date. Furthermore, it shows that the resilience of different community sectors can be enhanced by different power dispatch strategies. The proposed agent-based EPSS-community system resilience quantification framework can be used to develop better community and infrastructure system risk governance policies.
本文提出了一种基于智能体的框架，用于量化电力供应系统（EPSS）及其所服务社区的地震恢复力。在该框架内，利用EPSS发电和供电能力的损失与恢复以及所服务社区的电力需求，来评估灾害吸收和恢复过程中的电力短缺情况。使用地震易损性函数评估EPSS组件和社区建筑环境的损坏情况。使用地震恢复函数评估社区电力需求的恢复情况。然而，震后EPSS恢复过程是使用一个基于智能体的模型进行建模的，该模型有两个智能体，即EPSS运营商和社区管理员。使用直接的、与EPSS相关的、社会的和与社区相关的指标来量化EPSS-社区系统的恢复力。进行参数研究以量化不同地震灾害情景、智能体特征和电力调度策略对EPSS-社区地震恢复力的影响。基于智能体的建模框架的使用使得震后恢复阶段能够得到合理的表述，并突出了EPSS与社区在恢复过程中的相互作用，而这种相互作用在迄今为止开发的恢复力模型中并未得到量化。此外，研究表明，不同的电力调度策略可以增强不同社区部门的恢复力。所提出的基于智能体的EPSS-社区系统恢复力量化框架可用于制定更好的社区和基础设施系统风险治理政策。
