Temple University, Department of Psychology, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
University of Notre Dame, Department of Psychology, Notre Dame, IN, USA.
J Affect Disord. 2019 Feb 15;245:869-884. doi: 10.1016/j.jad.2018.11.073. Epub 2018 Nov 12.
Machine learning techniques offer promise to improve suicide risk prediction. In the current systematic review, we aimed to review the existing literature on the application of machine learning techniques to predict self-injurious thoughts and behaviors (SITBs).
We systematically searched PsycINFO, PsycARTICLES, ERIC, CINAHL, and MEDLINE for articles published through February 2018.
Thirty-five articles met criteria to be included in the review. Included articles were reviewed by outcome: suicide death, suicide attempt, suicide plan, suicidal ideation, suicide risk, and non-suicidal self-injury. We observed three general aims in the use of SITB-focused machine learning analyses: (1) improving prediction accuracy, (2) identifying important model indicators (i.e., variable selection) and indicator interactions, and (3) modeling underlying subgroups. For studies with the aim of boosting predictive accuracy, we observed greater prediction accuracy of SITBs than in previous studies using traditional statistical methods. Studies using machine learning for variable selection purposes have both replicated findings of well-known SITB risk factors and identified novel variables that may augment model performance. Finally, some of these studies have allowed for subgroup identification, which in turn has helped to inform clinical cutoffs.
Limitations of the current review include relatively low paper sample size, inconsistent reporting procedures resulting in an inability to compare model accuracy across studies, and lack of model validation on external samples.
We concluded that leveraging machine learning techniques to further predictive accuracy and identify novel indicators will aid in the prediction and prevention of suicide.
机器学习技术有望提高自杀风险预测的准确性。在本次系统评价中,我们旨在综述应用机器学习技术预测自伤意念和行为(SITB)的现有文献。
我们系统地检索了 PsycINFO、PsycARTICLES、ERIC、CINAHL 和 MEDLINE 数据库,以获取截至 2018 年 2 月发表的文章。
35 篇文章符合纳入标准。纳入的文章按结局进行了综述:自杀死亡、自杀未遂、自杀计划、自杀意念、自杀风险和非自杀性自伤。我们观察到 SITB 相关机器学习分析的三个一般目标:(1)提高预测准确性,(2)识别重要的模型指标(即变量选择)和指标间的相互作用,以及(3)对潜在亚组进行建模。对于旨在提高预测准确性的研究,我们观察到 SITB 的预测准确性高于之前使用传统统计方法的研究。使用机器学习进行变量选择的研究既复制了已知的 SITB 风险因素的发现,也确定了可能提高模型性能的新变量。最后,其中一些研究允许识别亚组,这反过来有助于为临床提供参考值。
目前的综述存在一些局限性,包括相对较低的论文样本量、不一致的报告程序导致无法在研究之间比较模型准确性,以及缺乏对外部样本的模型验证。
我们的结论是,利用机器学习技术进一步提高预测准确性和识别新的指标将有助于自杀的预测和预防。