Assessment and prediction of spatial patterns of human-elephant conflicts in changing land cover scenarios of a human-dominated landscape in North Bengal.

It is of utmost importance to research on the spatial patterns of human-wildlife conflicts to understand the underlying mechanism of such interactions, i.e. major land use changes and prominent ecological drivers. In the north eastern part of India there has been a disparity between nature, economic development and fragmentation of wildlife habitats leading to intense conflicts between humans and Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) in recent times. Both the elephant and human population have increased in the past few decades with large tracts of forests converted to commercial tea plantations, army camps and human settlements. We analyzed data maintained by the wildlife department on human deaths and injuries caused by elephant attacks between 2006-2016 to understand spatial and temporal patterns of human-elephant conflict, frequency and distribution. The average annual number of human deaths and injuries to elephant attacks between 2006 to 2016 was estimated to be 212 (SE 103) with the highest number of such incidents recorded in 2010-2011. Based on a grid based design of 5 km2 and 25 km2 resolution, the main spatial predictors of human-elephant conflicts identified through Maxent presence only models are annual mean precipitation, altitude, distance from protected area, area under forests, tea plantations and agriculture. Major land use changes were assessed for this region from 2008 to 2018 using satellite imageries in Arc GIS and a predicted imagery of 2028 was prepared using Idrisi Selva. Based on the 2018 imagery it was found that forest area had increased by 446 km2 within 10 years (2008-2018) and the annual rate of change was 12%. Area under agriculture had reduced by 128 km2 with an annual (-) rate of change of 2.5%. Area under tea plantation declined by 307 km2 with an annual (-) rate of change of 12% whereas area under human settlements increased by 61 km2 with an annual (-) rate of change of 44%. Hotspots of human-elephant conflicts were identified in an east west direction primarily around protected areas, tea plantations and along major riverine corridors. During informal interactions with farmers, tea estate labors it was revealed that local community members chased and harassed elephants from agriculture fields, human settlements under the influence of alcohol and thus were primary victims of fatal interactions. Our analytical approach can be replicated for other species in sites with similar issues of human-wildlife conflicts. The hotspot maps of conflict risk will help in developing appropriate mitigation strategies such as setting up early warning systems, restoration of wildlife corridors especially along dry river beds, using deterrents and barriers for vulnerable. Awareness about alcohol related incidents and basic biology of elephants should be organized regularly involving non-governmental organizations targeting the marginalized farmers and tea estate workers.