School of Resource & Environmental Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China.
School of Public Administration, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2019 May 1;663:198-205. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.287. Epub 2019 Jan 23.
Domestic trade flourishes with economic development and the spatial separation of production and consumption. Therefore, the prosperity of trade is accompanied by the transfer of pollution from the demand side to the supply side, which could potentially worsen the environmental quality of the supply side. Despite a large number of studies on the pollution haven hypothesis in international trade, little attention has been paid to testing the hypothesis in domestic trade. Here, combining a multiregional input-output analysis and a gravity model of trade in China, we provide an empirical test to address this problem for the first time. We also assess the factors affecting the SO emissions embodied in trade, including population, economic development, coal consumption, distance, and environmental regulations. We found that domestic trade contributed approximate one third of the total SO emissions in China, and interprovincial transfers of SO embodied in trade were significantly determined by the population, economic development, coal consumption of the trade pairs, as well as their distance. SO emission mitigation policies, such as emission reduction target and sulfur dioxide control zone, has a more significant influence on the direct transfer of SO emission via direct bilateral trade, while their effects were largely offset by indirect trade (through third-party transfers). Our results do not support the pollution haven hypothesis existed in domestic trade in China during 2007-2012. Our paper sets an example and provides a reference for the domestic pollution transfer problem from an econometric perspective. Further attempts on testing pollution haven hypothesis in consideration of various pollutants are still needed to arrive at a robust conclusion.
随着经济发展和生产与消费的空间分离，国内贸易蓬勃发展。因此，贸易的繁荣伴随着污染从需求侧向供给侧转移，这可能会恶化供给侧的环境质量。尽管国际贸易中的污染避难所假说已经有大量的研究，但对于在国内贸易中检验该假说的关注却很少。在这里，我们结合多区域投入产出分析和中国贸易的引力模型，首次提供了一个实证检验。我们还评估了影响贸易中隐含 SO 排放的因素，包括人口、经济发展、煤炭消费、距离和环境法规。我们发现，国内贸易贡献了中国总 SO 排放量的约三分之一，贸易中隐含的 SO 跨省份转移主要由贸易双方的人口、经济发展、煤炭消费以及它们之间的距离决定。减排目标和二氧化硫控制区等 SO 减排政策对通过直接双边贸易直接转移 SO 排放有更显著的影响，而其影响在很大程度上被间接贸易（通过第三方转移）所抵消。我们的研究结果不支持中国 2007-2012 年国内贸易中存在污染避难所假说。本文为从计量经济学角度研究国内污染转移问题树立了一个范例，并提供了一个参考。为了得出更稳健的结论，仍需要进一步尝试检验考虑各种污染物的污染避难所假说。
