Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Maurice Lamontagne Institute, Mont-Joli, Quebec, Canada.
Department of Biology, Science and Engineering Faculty, Laval University, Quebec City, Quebec, Canada.
PLoS One. 2019 Feb 7;14(2):e0211815. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0211815. eCollection 2019.
Climate change is impacting environmental conditions, especially with respect to temperature and ice cover in high latitude regions. Predictive models and risk assessment are key tools for understanding potential changes associated with such impacts on coastal regions. In this study relative ecological risk assessment was done for future potential introductions of three species in the Canadian Arctic: periwinkle Littorina littorea, soft shell clam Mya arenaria and red king crab Paralithodes camtschaticus. These species occur in locations connected to Canadian Arctic ports through shipping and have the potential to be introduced via ballast water discharge. The methodology proposed in this study is unique in the sense that it considers not only ballast water origin, but also the distribution of the species being assessed and the sensitivity of the receiving habitat. It combines detailed information (ballast water source of each tank, transit time, time of the year when the water is released, environmental suitability of receiving habitat, impact, and habitat sensitivity) in order to assess ecological risk. Through the use of this approach it is highlighted that domestic discharge events pose a higher relative overall risk on a vessel-specific and cumulative annual bases than international discharges. The main ports of Deception Bay and Churchill were classified as being at moderate to high relative risk for L. littorea and M. arenaria, especially from domestic vessels, while relative overall risk for P. camtschaticus was low for international vessels and null for domestic vessels due to few ships transiting from its range of distribution to Canadian Arctic ports. This work can serve as an approach to help build a list of potential high risk species-a "grey" watch list-for the Canadian Arctic, and provides useful information for consideration in future decision making actions such as the identification of high risk pathways, species and ports.
气候变化正在影响环境条件，特别是在高纬度地区的温度和冰盖方面。预测模型和风险评估是了解与沿海地区相关的潜在变化的关键工具。在这项研究中，对三种可能在加拿大北极地区引入的物种进行了相对生态风险评估：紫贻贝 Littorina littorea、软壳蛤 Mya arenaria 和红帝王蟹 Paralithodes camtschaticus。这些物种存在于与加拿大北极港口通过航运相连的位置，有可能通过压载水排放引入。本研究提出的方法具有独特性，因为它不仅考虑了压载水的来源，还考虑了被评估物种的分布以及接收栖息地的敏感性。它结合了详细信息（每个水箱的压载水来源、运输时间、释放水的时间、接收栖息地的环境适宜性、影响和栖息地敏感性），以评估生态风险。通过使用这种方法，可以突出表明，与国际排放相比，国内排放事件在船舶特定和年度累积的基础上对相对整体风险的影响更高。德克欺骗湾和丘吉尔主要港口被归类为紫贻贝和软壳蛤的相对高风险地区，特别是来自国内船只，而对于国际船只，红帝王蟹的相对整体风险较低，因为从其分布范围到加拿大北极港口的船只很少，因此对于国内船只来说为零。这项工作可以作为一种方法，帮助为加拿大北极地区建立一个潜在高风险物种的“灰色”观察名单，并为未来的决策行动提供有用的信息，例如确定高风险途径、物种和港口。
