NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, 08540, USA.
Geosciences Department, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, 08544, USA.
Nat Commun. 2019 Feb 7;10(1):635. doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-08471-z.
Tropical cyclones that rapidly intensify are typically associated with the highest forecast errors and cause a disproportionate amount of human and financial losses. Therefore, it is crucial to understand if, and why, there are observed upward trends in tropical cyclone intensification rates. Here, we utilize two observational datasets to calculate 24-hour wind speed changes over the period 1982-2009. We compare the observed trends to natural variability in bias-corrected, high-resolution, global coupled model experiments that accurately simulate the climatological distribution of tropical cyclone intensification. Both observed datasets show significant increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates in the Atlantic basin that are highly unusual compared to model-based estimates of internal climate variations. Our results suggest a detectable increase of Atlantic intensification rates with a positive contribution from anthropogenic forcing and reveal a need for more reliable data before detecting a robust trend at the global scale.
迅速增强的热带气旋通常与最高的预报误差有关，并造成不成比例的人员和经济损失。因此，了解热带气旋增强率是否存在观测到的上升趋势以及原因至关重要。在这里，我们利用两个观测数据集来计算 1982-2009 年期间 24 小时风速的变化。我们将观察到的趋势与经过偏差校正的高分辨率全球耦合模型实验中的自然变异性进行比较，这些模型实验准确地模拟了热带气旋增强的气候分布。两个观测数据集都显示出大西洋盆地热带气旋增强率的显著增加，与基于模型的内部气候变化估计相比，这是非常不寻常的。我们的结果表明，大西洋增强率有可检测到的增加，这与人为强迫的积极贡献有关，并表明在全球范围内检测到稳健趋势之前，需要更多可靠的数据。
