Kura Klodeta, Khamis Doran, El Mouden Claire, Bonsall Michael B
Mathematical Ecology Research Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3PS, UK.
J Math Biol. 2019 May;78(6):1821-1839. doi: 10.1007/s00285-019-01327-6. Epub 2019 Feb 7.
Vector-borne diseases are a major public health concern inflicting high levels of disease morbidity and mortality. Vector control is one of the principal methods available to manage infectious disease burden. One approach, releasing modified vectors (such as sterile or GM mosquitoes) Into the wild population has been suggested as an effective method of vector control. However, the effects of dispersal and the spatial distribution of disease vectors (such as mosquitoes) remain poorly studied. Here, we develop a novel mathematical framework using an integrodifference equation (discrete in time and continuous in space) approach to understand the impact of releasing sterile insects into the wild population in a spatially explicit environment. We prove that an optimal release strategy exists and show how it may be characterized by defining a sensitivity variable and an adjoint system. Using simulations, we show that the optimal strategy depends on the spatially varying carrying capacity of the environment.
媒介传播疾病是一个重大的公共卫生问题，造成了很高的发病率和死亡率。病媒控制是减轻传染病负担的主要可用方法之一。一种方法是将经过改造的病媒（如不育或转基因蚊子）释放到野生种群中，这被认为是一种有效的病媒控制方法。然而，病媒（如蚊子）的扩散及其空间分布的影响仍研究不足。在此，我们开发了一个新的数学框架，采用积分差分方程（时间离散、空间连续）方法，以了解在空间明确的环境中向野生种群释放不育昆虫的影响。我们证明存在一种最优释放策略，并展示了如何通过定义一个敏感性变量和一个伴随系统来对其进行表征。通过模拟，我们表明最优策略取决于环境中随空间变化的承载能力。
