Department of Environmental Management, School of Environmental Science and Management, Independent University Bangladesh, Bashundhara R/A, Dhaka 1229, Bangladesh; Tropical Forests and People Research Centre, University of the Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore DC, QLD 4558, Australia; Tropical Forestry Group, School of Agriculture and Food Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia.
Centre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Science, College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Cairns, QLD 4878, Australia; Institute of Forestry and Environmental Sciences, University of Chittagong, Chittagong 4331, Bangladesh.
Sci Total Environ. 2019 May 1;663:830-840. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.383. Epub 2019 Jan 30.
The Sundarbans, in southern coastal Bangladesh, is the world's largest surviving mangrove habitat and the last stronghold of tiger adapted to living in a mangrove ecosystem. Using MaxEnt (maximum entropy modeling), current distribution data, land-use/land cover and bioclimatic variables, we modeled the likely future distribution of the globally endangered Bengal tiger (Panthera tigris tigris) in the Bangladesh Sundarbans. We used two climatic scenarios (i.e., RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide projections of suitable habitats of Bengal tigers in 2050 and 2070. We also combined projected sea-level rise for the area in our models of future species distributions. Our results suggest that there will be a dramatic decline in suitable Bengal tiger habitats in the Bangladesh Sundarbans. Other than various aspects of local climate, sea-level rise is projected to have a substantial negative impact on Bengal tiger habitats in this low-lying area. Our model predicts that due to the combined effect of climate change and sea-level rise, there will be no suitable Bengal tiger habitat remaining in the Sundarbans by 2070. Enhancing terrestrial protected area coverage, regular monitoring, law enforcement, awareness-building among local residents among the key strategies needed to ensure long-term survival and conservation of the Bengal tiger in the Bangladesh Sundarbans.
孙德尔本斯位于孟加拉国南部沿海地区，是世界上现存最大的红树林生境，也是适应红树林生态系统生活的老虎的最后据点。利用最大熵模型（最大熵建模）、现有分布数据、土地利用/土地覆盖和生物气候变量，我们对孟加拉国孙德尔本斯地区全球濒危孟加拉虎（Panthera tigris tigris）的未来可能分布进行了建模。我们使用了政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）开发的两种气候情景（即 RCP6.0 和 RCP8.5），以提供 2050 年和 2070 年孟加拉虎适宜栖息地的预测。我们还在未来物种分布模型中结合了该地区预计的海平面上升情况。我们的研究结果表明，孟加拉国孙德尔本斯的孟加拉虎适宜栖息地将大幅减少。除了局部气候的各个方面，预计海平面上升将对该低地地区的孟加拉虎栖息地产生重大负面影响。我们的模型预测，由于气候变化和海平面上升的综合影响，到 2070 年，孙德尔本斯将没有适合孟加拉虎的栖息地。加强陆地保护区的覆盖范围、定期监测、执法、提高当地居民的意识是确保孟加拉国孙德尔本斯地区孟加拉虎长期生存和保护的关键战略。
