Wang Mi, Hu Zhuowei, Wang Yongcai, Zhao Wenji
College of Resources Environment and Tourism, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China.
Plants (Basel). 2023 Apr 5;12(7):1559. doi: 10.3390/plants12071559.
Planting suitability determines the distribution and yield of crops in a given region which can be greatly affected by climate change. In recent years, many studies have shown that carbon dioxide fertilization effects increase the productivity of temperate deciduous fruit trees under a changing climate, but the potential risks to fruit tree planting caused by a reduction in suitable planting areas are rarely reported. In this study, Maxent was first used to investigate the spatial distribution of five species in China, and the consistency between the actual production area and the modeled climatically suitable area under the current climatic conditions were determined. In addition, based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, three climate models were used to simulate the change in suitable area and the migration trend for different species under different emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). The results showed that the suitable area for pear was highly consistent with the actual main production area under current climate conditions. The potential planting areas of showed a downward trend under all emission paths from 2020 to 2100; other species showed a trend of increasing first and then decreasing or slowing down and this growth effect was the most obvious in 2020-2040. Except for , other species showed a migration trend toward a high latitude, and the trend was more prominent under the high emission path. Our results emphasize the response difference between species to climate change, and the method of consistency analysis between suitable planting area and actual production regions cannot only evaluate the potential planting risk but also provide a reasonable idea for the accuracy test of the modeled results. This work has certain guiding and reference significance for the protection of pear germplasm resources and the prediction of yield.
种植适宜性决定了特定区域内作物的分布和产量，而这会受到气候变化的重大影响。近年来，许多研究表明，在气候变化的情况下，二氧化碳施肥效应会提高温带落叶果树的生产力，但适宜种植面积减少对果树种植造成的潜在风险却鲜有报道。在本研究中，首先使用最大熵模型（Maxent）调查了中国五种[此处原文species指代不明，推测为果树种类]的空间分布，并确定了当前气候条件下实际产区与模拟气候适宜区之间的一致性。此外，基于耦合模式比较计划第六阶段（Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6），使用三个气候模型来模拟不同排放情景（SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5）下不同物种适宜面积的变化和迁移趋势。结果表明，在当前气候条件下，梨的适宜面积与实际主产区高度一致。从2020年到2100年，在所有排放路径下，[此处原文缺失具体物种，推测为某一果树种类]的潜在种植面积呈下降趋势；其他物种则呈现先增加后减少或增速放缓的趋势，且这种增长效应在2020-2040年最为明显。除了[此处原文缺失具体物种，推测为某一果树种类]，其他物种呈现向高纬度迁移的趋势，且在高排放路径下这种趋势更为显著。我们的研究结果强调了物种对气候变化的响应差异，适宜种植面积与实际生产区域之间的一致性分析方法不仅可以评估潜在种植风险，还为模拟结果的准确性检验提供了合理思路。这项工作对梨种质资源保护和产量预测具有一定的指导和参考意义。
