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登革热疫情的数学建模:控制方法与疫苗接种策略

Mathematical modeling of dengue epidemic: control methods and vaccination strategies.

作者信息

Carvalho Sylvestre Aureliano, da Silva Stella Olivia, Charret Iraziet da Cunha

机构信息

Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, Minas Gerais, 36570-900, Brazil.

Departamento de Ciências Exatas, Universidade Federal de Lavras, Lavras, Minas Gerais, 37200-000, Brazil.

出版信息

Theory Biosci. 2019 Nov;138(2):223-239. doi: 10.1007/s12064-019-00273-7. Epub 2019 Feb 10.

Abstract

Dengue is, in terms of death and economic cost, one of the most important infectious diseases in the world. So, its mathematical modeling can be a valuable tool to help us to understand the dynamics of the disease and to infer about its spreading by the proposition of control methods. In this paper, control strategies, which aim to eliminate the Aedes aegypti mosquito, as well as proposals for the vaccination campaign are evaluated. In our mathematical model, the mechanical control is accomplished through the environmental support capacity affected by a discrete function that represents the removal of breedings. Chemical control is carried out using insecticide and larvicide. The efficiency of vaccination is studied through the transfer of a fraction of individuals, proportional to the vaccination rate, from the susceptible to the recovered compartments. Our major find is that the dengue fever epidemic is only eradicated with the use of an immunizing vaccine because control measures, directed against its vector, are not enough to halt the disease spreading. Even when the infected mosquitoes are eliminated from the system, the susceptible ones are still present, and infected humans cause dengue fever to reappear in the human population.

摘要

就死亡人数和经济成本而言,登革热是世界上最重要的传染病之一。因此,其数学建模可以成为一个有价值的工具,帮助我们了解疾病动态,并通过提出控制方法来推断其传播情况。在本文中,对旨在消灭埃及伊蚊的控制策略以及疫苗接种运动的建议进行了评估。在我们的数学模型中,机械控制是通过一个离散函数影响环境支持能力来实现的,该函数代表了繁殖地的清除。化学控制是使用杀虫剂和杀幼虫剂进行的。通过将与疫苗接种率成比例的一部分个体从易感区转移到康复区来研究疫苗接种的效果。我们的主要发现是,只有使用免疫疫苗才能根除登革热疫情,因为针对其病媒的控制措施不足以阻止疾病传播。即使从系统中消除了受感染的蚊子,易感蚊子仍然存在,受感染的人类会导致登革热在人群中再次出现。

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