Computational Environmental Sciences Laboratory, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA.
Advanced Power and Energy Program, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA.
Environ Int. 2019 Apr;125:386-398. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2019.02.007. Epub 2019 Feb 8.
In this study we analyze the impact of major drivers of future air quality, both separately and simultaneously, for the year 2035 in three major California air basins: the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB), the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA), and the San Joaquin Valley (SJV). A variety of scenarios are considered based on changes in climate-driven meteorological conditions and both biogenic and anthropogenic emissions. Anthropogenic emissions are based on (1) the California Air Resources Board (CARB) California Emissions Projection Analysis Model (CEPAM), (2) increases in electric sector emissions due to climate change, and (3) aggressive adoption of alternative energy technologies electrification of end-use technologies, and energy efficiency measures. Results indicate that climate-driven changes in meteorological conditions will significantly alter day-to-day variations in future ozone and PM concentrations, likely increasing the frequency and severity of pollution periods in regions that already experience poor air quality and increasing health risks from pollutant exposure. Increases in biogenic and anthropogenic emissions due to climate change are important during the summer seasons, but have little effect on pollutant concentrations during the winter. Results also indicate that controlling anthropogenic emissions will play a critical role in mitigating climate-driven increases in both ozone and PM concentrations in the most populated areas of California. In the absence of anthropogenic emissions controls, climate change will worsen ozone air quality throughout the state, increasing exceedances of ambient air quality standards. If planned reductions in anthropogenic emissions are implemented, ozone air quality throughout the less urban areas of the state may be improved in the year 2035, but regions such as the SoCAB and the east SFBA will likely continue to experience high ozone concentrations throughout the summer season. Climate change and anthropogenic emissions controls are both found to decrease wintertime PM concentrations in the SJV, eliminating nearly all exceedances of PM National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) in the year 2035. However, reductions in anthropogenic emissions are unable to fully mitigate the impact of climate change on PM concentrations in the SoCAB and east SFBA. Thus, while future air quality in the SJV is projected to be improved in the year 2035, air quality in the SoCAB and east SFBA will remain similar or marginally worsen compared to present day levels. Conversely, we find that aggressive adoption of alternative energy technologies including renewable resources, electrification of end-use technologies, and energy efficiency measures can offset the impacts of climate change. Overall, the two main drivers for air quality in 2035 are changes in meteorological conditions due to climate change and reductions in anthropogenic emissions.
在这项研究中，我们分析了未来空气质量的主要驱动因素对 2035 年加利福尼亚三个主要空气盆地的单独和综合影响：南海岸空气盆地（SoCAB）、旧金山湾区（SFBA）和圣华金河谷（SJV）。考虑了多种情景，这些情景基于气候驱动的气象条件变化以及生物源和人为排放的变化。人为排放基于（1）加利福尼亚空气资源委员会（CARB）的加利福尼亚排放预测分析模型（CEPAM），（2）气候变化导致的电力部门排放增加，以及（3）替代能源技术的积极采用，包括终端使用技术的电气化和能源效率措施。结果表明，气候驱动的气象条件变化将显著改变未来臭氧和 PM 浓度的日常变化，可能会增加已经空气质量较差的地区的污染期的频率和严重程度，并增加污染物暴露带来的健康风险。气候变化导致的生物源和人为排放增加在夏季很重要，但在冬季对污染物浓度影响不大。结果还表明，控制人为排放将在减轻加利福尼亚人口最多地区的臭氧和 PM 浓度的气候驱动增加方面发挥关键作用。如果没有人为排放控制，气候变化将使全州的臭氧空气质量恶化，增加对环境空气质量标准的超标。如果实施计划减少人为排放，到 2035 年，全州较不城市化地区的臭氧空气质量可能会得到改善，但 SoCAB 和东 SFBA 等地区在整个夏季仍可能继续经历高臭氧浓度。气候变化和人为排放控制都被发现减少了 SJV 的冬季 PM 浓度，到 2035 年消除了几乎所有 PM 国家环境空气质量标准（NAAQS）的超标。然而，人为排放的减少无法完全减轻气候变化对 SoCAB 和东 SFBA 中 PM 浓度的影响。因此，尽管 SJV 的未来空气质量预计在 2035 年会得到改善，但 SoCAB 和东 SFBA 的空气质量与现在相比仍将保持相似或略有恶化。相反，我们发现积极采用替代能源技术，包括可再生资源、终端使用技术的电气化和能源效率措施，可以抵消气候变化的影响。总体而言，2035 年空气质量的两个主要驱动因素是气候变化引起的气象条件变化和人为排放减少。
