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[2012 - 2017年中国丙型肝炎与艾滋病毒/艾滋病报告病例的时空分布及相关性]

[Spatio-temporal distribution and correlation of reported cases of hepatitis C and HIV/AIDS in China, 2012-2017].

作者信息

Gao Y, Feng X F, Wen J, Hei F X, Ding G W, Pang L

机构信息

Division of Hepatitis C/STD Prevention and Treatment, National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.

出版信息

Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2019 Feb 10;40(2):155-159. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2019.02.006.

Abstract

To compare the time and spatial distribution of hepatitis C and HIV/AIDS cases and its correlation, in China from 2012 to 2017. Data on reported hepatitis C and HIV/AIDS cases was gathered from the Direct Reporting System of Infectious Diseases Information Network in China, 2012 to 2017 while annually collected provincial data was based on the date of review and current address. Correlation of the data was analyzed, using both simple correlation and linear regression methods. The number of reported cases of hepatitis C remained stable in China, in 2012-2017, with the number of annual reported cases as 201 622, 203 155, 202 803, 207 897, 206 832 and 214 023, respectively. The number of reported cases on HIV/AIDS showed a steady growing trend, from 82 434, 90 119, 103 501, 115 465, 124 555 to 134 512. However, the numbers of hepatitis C and HIV/AIDS cases were in the same, top six provinces: Henan, Guangdong, Xinjiang, Guangxi, Hunan and Yunnan. Results from the simple correlation analysis indicated that there was a positive correlation (>0.5, <0.01) existed between the above-said two kinds of cases at the provincial level in China, in 2012-2017. Again, results from the linear regression analysis also showed that the correlation coefficient and year was strongly correlated (=0.966) while (s) had been linearly increasing with time. Our data showed that there were temporal and spatial correlations existed between the reported cases of hepatitis C and HIV/AIDS at the provincial level, suggesting that relevant prevention and control programs be carried out in areas with serious epidemics. Combination of the two strategies should be encouraged, especially on prevention and treatment measures related to blood transmission.

摘要

为比较2012年至2017年中国丙型肝炎和艾滋病毒/艾滋病病例的时间和空间分布及其相关性。从中国传染病信息网络直报系统收集2012年至2017年报告的丙型肝炎和艾滋病毒/艾滋病病例数据,而年度收集的省级数据基于审核日期和现住址。使用简单相关和线性回归方法分析数据的相关性。2012 - 2017年中国丙型肝炎报告病例数保持稳定,每年报告病例数分别为201622、203155、202803、207897、206832和214023。艾滋病毒/艾滋病报告病例数呈稳步增长趋势,从82434、90119、103501、115465、124555增长至134512。然而,丙型肝炎和艾滋病毒/艾滋病病例数排在前六位的省份相同:河南、广东、新疆、广西、湖南和云南。简单相关分析结果表明,2012 - 2017年中国省级层面上述两类病例之间存在正相关(>0.5,<0.01)。同样,线性回归分析结果也显示相关系数与年份高度相关(=0.966),且(s)随时间呈线性增加。我们的数据表明,省级层面丙型肝炎和艾滋病毒/艾滋病报告病例之间存在时间和空间相关性,提示应在疫情严重地区开展相关防控项目。应鼓励两种策略相结合,特别是在与血液传播相关的预防和治疗措施方面。

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