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[2010 - 2016年中国15岁及以上女性新发现艾滋病病毒/艾滋病病例的时空分布]

[Spatial-temporal distribution of newly detected HIV/AIDS cases among aged 15 years or older women in China, 2010-2016].

作者信息

Chen F F, Guo W, Qin Q Q, Cai C, Cui Y

机构信息

National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.

出版信息

Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2018 Jun 10;39(6):739-744. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2018.06.009.

Abstract

To identify the spatial clustering and its temporal trends among newly detected female HIV/AIDS cases aged 15 years or older, in China from 2010 to 2016. Newly detected HIV/AIDS cases among aged 15 years or older women in China during 2010-2016 were collected, to describe their demographic characteristics, changing trends and spatial autocorrelation. This program was conducted at county level, using the ArcGIS 10.3. The number of newly detected HIV/AIDS cases among aged 15 years or older women was increasing annually from 16 603 to 26 196 in 2010 and in 2016. As the main route proportion of heterosexual transmission increased from 84.25 (13 988/16 603) in 2010 to 96.29(25 224/26 196) in 2016. Both the number and proportion of HIV/AIDS cases among elderly women ≥50 years of age increased significantly from 17.82(2 959/16 603) to 38.10(9 981/26 196) in 2016. Results from spatial analysis demonstrated a county-level clustered distribution of HIV/AIDS cases across the country with a rising global Moran's value=0.55 over the years (=51.46, <0.001), which was concentrating on western and southern China, covering 9 provinces/autonomous regions/municipalities (Yunnan, Guangxi, Sichuan, Xinjiang, Guizhou, Guangdong, Chongqing, Henan and Hunan). The temporal trends of hot spots differed by age groups, with the trend of epidemic shifting towards western border and southern coastal regions among women aged 15-49 years old, while the elderly women aged ≥50 years old were spreading northward from the southwestern regions. Our findings indicated that an increasing trend of clusters appeared on HIV epidemic among newly detected female HIV/AIDS cases aged 15 years or older in China, particularly in the western and southern regions. Prevention and intervention strategies should target on women according to their age distribution, particularly in regions with increasing trend of HIV epidemics.

摘要

为了确定2010年至2016年中国15岁及以上新检测出的女性艾滋病毒/艾滋病病例中的空间聚集情况及其时间趋势。收集了2010 - 2016年期间中国15岁及以上老年女性中新检测出的艾滋病毒/艾滋病病例,以描述其人口统计学特征、变化趋势和空间自相关性。该项目在县级开展,使用ArcGIS 10.3软件。2010年至2016年期间,15岁及以上老年女性中新检测出的艾滋病毒/艾滋病病例数量逐年增加,从16603例增至26196例。异性传播作为主要传播途径的比例从2010年的84.25%(13988/16603)增至2016年的96.29%(25 /26196)。50岁及以上老年女性艾滋病毒/艾滋病病例的数量和比例均显著增加,从2010年的17.82%(2959/16603)增至2016年的38.10%(9981/26196)。空间分析结果表明,全国艾滋病毒/艾滋病病例在县级呈现聚集分布,多年来全局莫兰指数值上升至0.55( =51.46,<0.001),集中在中国西部和南部,覆盖9个省/自治区/直辖市(云南、广西、四川、新疆、贵州、广东、重庆、河南和湖南)。热点的时间趋势因年龄组而异,15 - 49岁女性的疫情趋势向西部边境和南部沿海地区转移,而50岁及以上老年女性则从西南地区向北扩散。我们的研究结果表明,中国15岁及以上新检测出的女性艾滋病毒/艾滋病病例中,艾滋病毒疫情的聚集趋势呈上升趋势,特别是在西部和南部地区。预防和干预策略应根据女性的年龄分布,特别是在艾滋病毒疫情呈上升趋势的地区,针对女性群体。 224

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