John H. Heinz III College of Public Policy and Information Systems, Carnegie Mellon University, Hamburg Hall, 5000 Forbes Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA.
Booz Allen Hamilton, 20 M St SE, Washington, DC 20003, USA.
Accid Anal Prev. 2019 Apr;125:207-216. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2019.02.003. Epub 2019 Feb 14.
Most light-duty vehicle crashes occur due to human error. Many of these crashes could be avoided or made less severe with the aid of crash avoidance technologies. These technologies can assist the driver in maintaining control of the vehicle when a possibly dangerous situation arises by issuing alerts to the driver and in a few cases, responding to the situation itself. This paper estimates the societal and private benefits and costs associated with three crash avoidance technologies, blind-spot monitoring, lane departure warning, and forward-collision warning, for all light duty passenger vehicles in the U.S. for the year 2015. The three technologies could collectively prevent up to 1.6 million crashes each year including 7200 fatal crashes. In this paper, the authors estimated the net-societal benefits to the overall society from avoiding the cost of the crashes while also estimating the private share of those benefits that are directly affecting the crash victims. For the first generation warning systems, net-societal benefits and net-private benefits are positive. Moreover, the newer generation of improved warning systems and active braking should make net benefits even more advantageous.
大多数轻型车辆事故都是人为失误造成的。如果有防撞技术的帮助，许多事故是可以避免或减轻严重程度的。这些技术可以在可能出现危险情况时向驾驶员发出警报，并在某些情况下自行对情况做出反应，从而帮助驾驶员保持对车辆的控制。本文针对盲点监测、车道偏离警告和前方碰撞警告这三种防撞技术，估算了它们为 2015 年美国所有轻型乘用车带来的社会效益和私人成本。这三种技术每年总计可预防多达 160 万起事故，包括 7200 起致命事故。在本文中，作者估算了避免事故成本为全社会带来的净社会效益，同时估算了直接受事故影响的受害者的私人收益份额。对于第一代预警系统，社会效益和私人收益均为正值。此外，新一代改进的预警系统和主动制动系统应该会使净收益更具优势。
