Najafimehr Hadis, Ashtari Sara, Pourhoseingholi Mohamad Amin, Busani Luca
Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases Research Center, Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Basic and Molecular Epidemiology of Gastrointestinal Disorders Research Center, Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Gastroenterol Hepatol Bed Bench. 2018 Winter;11(Suppl 1):S25-S31.
The aim of this study was to identify the esophageal cancer (EC) high risk regions to evaluate changes of relative risks (RRs) for both genders by time in Iranian provinces.
EC is one of the public health problems in Iran. In spite of this fact, there is not comprehensive study estimating RRs across the Iranian provinces.
In this cross-sectional study the data for EC cases were extracted from Ministry of Health and Medical Education (MOHME) including 30 provinces from 2004 to 2010. For estimating the model parameters, we used Bayesian approach by regarding spatial correlations of adjacent provinces.
The Northern half of Iran has high risk and other half has low risk. During the time, the range of RRs has decreased for both gender and also the dispersion of EC is decreasing for women but nearly is fixed for men.
While RR has declined during the study, focusing on the Northern half of Iran as high risk regions is a considerable fact for policymakers.
本研究旨在确定食管癌（EC）的高风险地区，以评估伊朗各省不同性别相对风险（RR）随时间的变化。
食管癌是伊朗的公共卫生问题之一。尽管如此，尚无全面研究估算伊朗各省的相对风险。
在这项横断面研究中，食管癌病例数据取自卫生和医学教育部（MOHME），涵盖2004年至2010年的30个省份。为估算模型参数，我们采用贝叶斯方法并考虑相邻省份的空间相关性。
伊朗北部一半地区风险高，另一半地区风险低。在此期间，不同性别的RR范围均有所下降，女性食管癌的离散程度在降低，而男性的离散程度几乎保持不变。
尽管在研究期间RR有所下降，但对于政策制定者而言，将伊朗北部一半地区作为高风险地区予以关注是一个重要事实。
