Chamanpara Parisa, Moghimbeigi Abbas, Faradmal Javad, Poorolajal Jalal
Golestan Research Center of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Golestan, Iran ; Modeling of Noncommunicable Disease Research Canter, Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran.
Modeling of Noncommunicable Disease Research Canter, Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran.
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2015 Jun;6(3):205-10. doi: 10.1016/j.phrp.2015.02.002. Epub 2015 Feb 19.
Recent studies have suggested the occurrence patterns and related diet factor of esophagus cancer (EC) and gastric cancer (GC). Incidence of these cancers was mapped either in general and stratified by sex. The aim of this study was to model the geographical variation in incidence of these two related cancers jointly to explore the relative importance of an intended risk factor, diet low in fruit and vegetable intake, in Golestan, Iran.
Data on the incidence of EC and GC between 2004 and 2008 were extracted from Golestan Research Center of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Hamadan, Iran. These data were registered as new observations in 11 counties of the province yearly. The Bayesian shared component model was used to analyze the spatial variation of incidence rates jointly and in this study we analyzed the data using this model. Joint modeling improved the precision of estimations of underlying diseases pattern, and thus strengthened the relevant results.
From 2004 to 2008, the joint incidence rates of the two cancers studied were relatively high (0.8-1.2) in the Golestan area. The general map showed that the northern part of the province was at higher risk than the other parts. Thus the component representing diet low in fruit and vegetable intake had larger effect of EC and GC incidence rates in this part. This incidence risk pattern was retained for female but for male was a little different.
Using a shared component model for joint modeling of incidence rates leads to more precise estimates, so the common risk factor, a diet low in fruit and vegetables, is important in this area and needs more attention in the allocation and delivery of public health policies.
近期研究揭示了食管癌（EC）和胃癌（GC）的发病模式及相关饮食因素。这些癌症的发病率已按总体情况以及按性别进行分层绘制。本研究的目的是对这两种相关癌症发病率的地理变异进行联合建模，以探究预期风险因素——水果和蔬菜摄入量低的饮食——在伊朗戈勒斯坦省的相对重要性。
2004年至2008年期间EC和GC的发病率数据取自伊朗哈马丹的戈勒斯坦胃肠病学和肝病研究中心。这些数据每年作为新的观测值记录在该省的11个县。采用贝叶斯共享成分模型对发病率的空间变异进行联合分析，本研究使用该模型对数据进行分析。联合建模提高了对潜在疾病模式估计的精度，从而强化了相关结果。
2004年至2008年期间，戈勒斯坦地区所研究的这两种癌症的联合发病率相对较高（0.8 - 1.2）。总体地图显示该省北部的风险高于其他地区。因此，代表水果和蔬菜摄入量低的饮食这一成分对该地区EC和GC发病率的影响更大。这种发病风险模式在女性中得以保留，但在男性中略有不同。
使用共享成分模型对发病率进行联合建模可得到更精确的估计，因此常见风险因素——水果和蔬菜摄入量低的饮食——在该地区很重要，在公共卫生政策的分配和实施中需要更多关注。
