Departamento de Fitotecnia, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, Brazil.
Ecosystem Management, School of Environmental and Rural Science, University of New England, Armidale, Australia.
Pest Manag Sci. 2019 Oct;75(10):2706-2715. doi: 10.1002/ps.5379. Epub 2019 Apr 16.
For the first time, a model was applied at the global scale to investigate the effects of climate change on Dalbulus maidis. D. maidis is the main vector of three plant pathogens of maize crops and has been reported as one of the most important maize pests in Latin America. We modelled the effects of climate change on this pest using three Global Climate Models under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using MaxEnt software.
Overall, climate change will lead to a decrease in suitable areas for D. maidis. In South America, climate change will decrease the areas suitable for the pest, especially in Brazil. However, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela will have small areas that are highly suitable for the corn leafhopper. Outside the pest's range, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi and South Africa also should be concerned about the risk of corn leafhopper invasions in the future because they are projected to have conditions that are highly suitable for this insect in some areas.
This study allows the relevant countries to increase their quarantine measures and guide researchers to develop new Zea mays varieties that are resistant or tolerant to D. maidis. In addition, the maize-stunting pathogens for the areas are highlighted in this modelling. © 2019 Society of Chemical Industry.
首次在全球范围内应用模型研究气候变化对玉米二点叶蝉的影响。玉米二点叶蝉是玉米作物三种病原菌的主要媒介，被报告为拉丁美洲最重要的玉米害虫之一。我们使用 MaxEnt 软件，利用三种全球气候模型和两种代表性浓度路径（RCP）模拟了气候变化对这种害虫的影响。
总体而言，气候变化将导致玉米二点叶蝉适宜区域减少。在南美洲，气候变化将减少该害虫适宜的区域，尤其是在巴西。然而，阿根廷、智利、哥伦比亚、厄瓜多尔、秘鲁和委内瑞拉将有一些小区域高度适宜玉米叶蝉。在该害虫分布范围之外，埃塞俄比亚、肯尼亚、卢旺达、布隆迪和南非也应该关注未来玉米叶蝉入侵的风险，因为预计在一些地区，这些地区的条件非常适合这种昆虫。
本研究使相关国家能够加强检疫措施，并指导研究人员开发对玉米二点叶蝉具有抗性或耐受性的新玉米品种。此外，本模型突出了该地区玉米矮化病原菌。© 2019 英国化学工业学会。
