Zhang Liang, Wang Ping, Xie Guanglin, Wang Wenkai
Institute of Entomology, College of Agriculture Yangtze University Jingzhou China.
MARA Key Laboratory of Sustainable Crop Production in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River (Co-Construction by Ministry and Province) College of Agriculture, Yangtze University Jingzhou China.
Ecol Evol. 2024 Dec 5;14(12):e70692. doi: 10.1002/ece3.70692. eCollection 2024 Dec.
The (Motschulsky) is a phytophagous pest that is seriously endangering Linn. and Koidz. Poor control can damage local ecosystems, resulting in economic losses and management risks. In the context of climate change, the climatic ecological niche of organisms is no longer compatible with the surrounding environment. To mitigate the effects of climate change, some organisms respond adaptively to climate change through different mechanisms and in different ways. In this study, an optimized MaxEnt model was used to explore the potential distribution areas of and its host plants, and , in response to current and future climate and to determine their movement routes and relative dynamics. The results show that the optimized model exhibits the lowest complexity and excellent prediction accuracy. It is important to note that both temperature and precipitation are the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of suitable habitats for and its host plants. This is evidenced by the mean temperature of the warmest quarter and precipitation of the wettest month being the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of suitable habitats for the host plants. Similarly, the minimum temperature of the coldest month and precipitation seasonality are the primary bioclimatic variables constraining the dispersal of . Under climate change, the suitable areas of both and are declining, while the suitable areas of are expanding in future climates. Furthermore, three species exhibited a proclivity for migration to higher latitudes in response to climate change. In conclusion, this study contributes to our understanding of the biogeographic characteristics of these , , and and provides a basis for the formulation of timely conservation strategies to reduce the potential impacts of climate change. This is of great significance for the rational management, utilization, and protection of forest ecosystems in China.
（莫氏象甲）是一种严重危害[具体植物名称1] Linn.和[具体植物名称2] Koidz.的植食性害虫。防治不力会破坏当地生态系统，导致经济损失和管理风险。在气候变化背景下，生物的气候生态位已不再与周围环境相适应。为减轻气候变化的影响，一些生物通过不同机制、以不同方式对气候变化做出适应性反应。在本研究中，使用优化的最大熵模型来探索[害虫名称]及其寄主植物[具体植物名称1]和[具体植物名称2]在当前和未来气候条件下的潜在分布区域，并确定它们的迁移路线和相对动态。结果表明，优化后的模型具有最低的复杂度和出色的预测准确性。需要注意的是，温度和降水都是影响[害虫名称]及其寄主植物适宜栖息地分布的主要环境因素。这一点通过最暖季度的平均温度和最湿月份的降水量是影响寄主植物适宜栖息地分布的主要环境因素得到证明。同样，最冷月的最低温度和降水季节性是限制[害虫名称]扩散的主要生物气候变量。在气候变化下，[害虫名称]和[具体植物名称1]的适宜区域都在减少，而[具体植物名称2]的适宜区域在未来气候中正在扩大。此外，这三个物种在气候变化下都表现出向高纬度迁移的倾向。总之，本研究有助于我们了解这些[害虫名称]、[具体植物名称1]和[具体植物名称2]的生物地理特征，并为制定及时的保护策略以减少气候变化的潜在影响提供了依据。这对中国森林生态系统的合理管理、利用和保护具有重要意义。
