Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA.
Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA.
Science. 2019 Mar 1;363(6430):979-983. doi: 10.1126/science.aau1758.
Climate change is altering habitats for marine fishes and invertebrates, but the net effect of these changes on potential food production is unknown. We used temperature-dependent population models to measure the influence of warming on the productivity of 235 populations of 124 species in 38 ecoregions. Some populations responded significantly positively ( = 9 populations) and others responded significantly negatively ( = 19 populations) to warming, with the direction and magnitude of the response explained by ecoregion, taxonomy, life history, and exploitation history. Hindcasts indicate that the maximum sustainable yield of the evaluated populations decreased by 4.1% from 1930 to 2010, with five ecoregions experiencing losses of 15 to 35%. Outcomes of fisheries management-including long-term food provisioning-will be improved by accounting for changing productivity in a warmer ocean.
气候变化正在改变海洋鱼类和无脊椎动物的栖息地，但这些变化对潜在食物产量的净影响尚不清楚。我们使用依赖于温度的种群模型来衡量升温对 38 个生态区的 124 个物种的 235 个种群的生产力的影响。一些种群对变暖有显著的正响应（=9 个种群），而另一些种群有显著的负响应（=19 个种群），响应的方向和幅度可以用生态区、分类学、生活史和开发历史来解释。回溯表明，评估种群的最大可持续产量从 1930 年到 2010 年下降了 4.1%，五个生态区的损失在 15%到 35%之间。如果在变暖的海洋中考虑到生产力的变化，渔业管理的结果——包括长期的食物供应——将会得到改善。
