Leung Tiffany, Campbell Patricia T, Hughes Barry D, Frascoli Federico, McCaw James M
School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria 3010, Australia.
Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory Epidemiology Unit, Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne and Royal Melbourne Hospital, Parkville, Victoria 3010, Australia.
Infect Dis Model. 2018 Jun 15;3:118-135. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2018.06.002. eCollection 2018.
In some disease systems, the process of waning immunity can be subtle, involving a complex relationship between the duration of immunity-acquired either through natural infection or vaccination-and subsequent boosting of immunity through asymptomatic re-exposure. We present and analyse a model of infectious disease transmission where primary and secondary infections are distinguished to examine the interplay between infection and immunity. Additionally we allow the duration of infection-acquired immunity to differ from that of vaccine-acquired immunity to explore the impact on long-term disease patterns and prevalence of infection in the presence of immune boosting. Our model demonstrates that vaccination may induce cyclic behaviour, and the ability of vaccinations to reduce primary infections may not lead to decreased transmission. Where the boosting of vaccine-acquired immunity delays a primary infection, the driver of transmission largely remains primary infections. In contrast, if the immune boosting bypasses a primary infection, secondary infections become the main driver of transmission under a sufficiently long duration of immunity. Our results show that the epidemiological patterns of an infectious disease may change considerably when the duration of vaccine-acquired immunity differs from that of infection-acquired immunity. Our study highlights that for any particular disease and associated vaccine, a detailed understanding of the waning and boosting of immunity and how the duration of protection is influenced by infection prevalence are important as we seek to optimise vaccination strategies.
在一些疾病系统中,免疫衰退过程可能很微妙,涉及通过自然感染或疫苗接种获得的免疫持续时间与随后通过无症状再次暴露增强免疫之间的复杂关系。我们提出并分析了一个传染病传播模型,其中区分了初次感染和二次感染,以研究感染与免疫之间的相互作用。此外,我们允许感染获得的免疫持续时间与疫苗获得的免疫持续时间不同,以探讨在存在免疫增强的情况下对长期疾病模式和感染流行率的影响。我们的模型表明,疫苗接种可能会引发周期性行为,而且疫苗接种减少初次感染的能力可能不会导致传播减少。当疫苗获得的免疫增强延迟初次感染时,传播的驱动因素很大程度上仍然是初次感染。相比之下,如果免疫增强绕过初次感染,在足够长的免疫持续时间下,二次感染将成为传播的主要驱动因素。我们的结果表明,当疫苗获得的免疫持续时间与感染获得的免疫持续时间不同时,传染病的流行病学模式可能会发生很大变化。我们的研究强调,对于任何特定疾病和相关疫苗,在我们寻求优化疫苗接种策略时,详细了解免疫的衰退和增强以及保护持续时间如何受到感染流行率的影响非常重要。