Department of Preventive Medicine & Community Health, University of Texas Medical Branch, 301 University Blvd. Route 1153, Galveston, TX 77555-1153, USA; Center in Environmental Toxicology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, USA.
Department of Management, California State University, Chico, CA, USA.
Environ Res. 2019 May;172:462-469. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2019.02.039. Epub 2019 Feb 27.
The potential of system dynamics modeling to advance our understanding of cumulative risk in the service of optimal health is discussed. The focus is on exploring system dynamics modeling as a systems science methodology that can provide a framework for examining the complexity of real-world social and environmental exposures among populations-particularly those exposed to multiple disparate sources of risk. The discussion also examines how system dynamics modeling can engage a diverse body of key stakeholders throughout the modeling process, promoting the collective assessment of assumptions and systematic gathering of critical data. Though not a panacea, system dynamics modeling provides a promising methodology to complement traditional research methods in understanding cumulative health effects from exposure to multiple environmental and social stressors.
本文探讨了系统动力学建模在增进我们对累积风险的理解方面的潜力，以促进最佳健康。重点是探索系统动力学建模作为一种系统科学方法，它可以为研究人群中现实世界的社会和环境暴露的复杂性提供一个框架，特别是那些面临多种不同风险源的人群。本文还探讨了系统动力学建模如何在建模过程中吸引不同的主要利益相关者，促进对假设的集体评估和对关键数据的系统收集。尽管不是万无一失的方法，但系统动力学建模为理解多种环境和社会压力源对健康的累积影响提供了一种有前途的方法，可作为传统研究方法的补充。
