Department of Political Science, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, United States of America.
Department of Statistics, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2019 Mar 7;14(3):e0213284. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0213284. eCollection 2019.
International environmental treaties are the key means by which states overcome collective action problems and make specific commitments to address environmental issues. However, systematically assessing states' influence in promoting global environmental protection has proven difficult. Analyzing newly compiled data with a purpose-built statistical model, we provide a novel measurement of state influence within the scope of environmental politics and find strong influences among states and treaties. Specifically, we report evidence that states are less likely to ratify when states within their region ratify, and results suggesting that countries positively influence other countries at similar levels of economic development. By examining several prominent treaties, we illustrate the complex nature of influence: a single act of ratification can dramatically reshape global environmental politics. More generally, our findings and approach provide an innovative means to understand the evolution and complexity of international environmental protection.
国际环境条约是国家克服集体行动问题并做出具体承诺以解决环境问题的关键手段。然而,系统地评估国家在促进全球环境保护方面的影响力一直很困难。通过使用专门构建的统计模型分析新编制的数据,我们在环境政治范围内提供了一种衡量国家影响力的新方法,发现国家之间和条约之间存在着强大的影响力。具体而言,我们报告了证据表明,当一个国家所在地区的国家批准时,该国家批准的可能性较小,而且结果表明,经济发展水平相似的国家会对其他国家产生积极影响。通过研究几项重要的条约,我们说明了影响力的复杂性:一次批准行为就可以极大地改变全球环境政治。更一般地说,我们的发现和方法为理解国际环境保护的演变和复杂性提供了一种创新手段。