Dynamic forage-livestock balance analysis in alpine grasslands on the Northern Tibetan Plateau.

Forage-livestock balance is important for sustainable management of alpine grasslands under global change, but the robustness of diverse algorithms for assessing forage-livestock balance is still unclear. This study compiled long-term (2009-2014) field observations of aboveground biomass (AGB). Using climate and remote sensing data, we evaluated the inter-annual dynamics of the forage-livestock balance on the Northern Tibetan Plateau (NTP). Here, we assumed that AGB dynamics in fenced grasslands (AGB) is only driven by climate change; whereas AGB dynamics in open grasslands grazed by livestock (AGB) is driven by a combination of climate change and human activities. Thus, human-induced change in AGB (AGB) could be estimated via the difference between AGB and AGB. Furthermore, differences in the temporal trends between AGB and AGB could indicate the state of forage-livestock balance, overgrazed or not, in alpine grasslands. Our results showed that the overall status of the forage-livestock balance from 2000 to 2006 was overgrazed owing to poor climatic conditions. Ecological projects and economic policies for alpine grassland conservation had not been implemented at that time, which also resulted in local overgrazing. From 2006 to 2014, the alpine grasslands in some areas were in a less-grazed state. We suggest that the livestock number could potentially increase in northern NTP and should be reduced or strictly controlled to maintain the balance between livestock and forage in the southern and southeast areas. In conclusion, the results of this study suggest that the evaluation of the forage-livestock balance in the NTP should include the local climatic conditions and make better use of grassland resources while ensuring ecological security.