Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU), Department of Socioeconomics/Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, Building D4, 3rd Floor, Welthandelsplatz 1, 1020, Vienna, Austria.
Institut National d'études Démographiques (INED), 133, boulevard Davout, F-75020, Paris, France.
Demography. 2019 Apr;56(2):595-619. doi: 10.1007/s13524-019-00767-5.
In most developed countries, the fertility levels of parents and children are positively correlated. This article analyzes the strength of the intergenerational transmission of family size over the last century, including a focus on this reproduction in large and small families. Using the large-scale French Family Survey (2011), we show a weak but significant correlation of approximately 0.12-0.15, which is comparable with levels in other Western countries. It is stronger for women than men, with a gender convergence across cohorts. A decrease in intergenerational transmission is observed across birth cohorts regardless of whether socioeconomic factors are controlled, supporting the idea that the family of origin has lost implicit and explicit influence on fertility choices. As parents were adopting the two-child family norm, the number of siblings lost its importance for having two children, but it continues to explain lower parity and, above all, three-child families. This suggests that the third child has increasingly become an "extra child" (beyond the norm) favored by people from large families.
在大多数发达国家，父母和子女的生育率呈正相关。本文分析了上世纪以来家庭规模的代际传递强度，包括对大家庭和小家庭生育的关注。利用大规模的法国家庭调查（2011 年），我们发现大约在 0.12-0.15 之间存在较弱但显著的相关性，这与其他西方国家的水平相当。这种相关性在女性中比男性更强，而且随着世代的变化，性别差异在逐渐缩小。无论是否控制社会经济因素，各生育队列的代际传递都呈下降趋势，这支持了这样一种观点，即原生家庭对生育选择的隐含和显式影响已经减弱。随着父母开始接受二孩家庭规范，兄弟姐妹的数量对于生育两个孩子的重要性降低，但它仍然可以解释较低的生育胎次，尤其是三孩家庭。这表明，第三个孩子越来越成为大家庭青睐的“额外孩子”（超出规范）。
