Wallis Patrick, Colson Justin, Chilosi David
Wallis, LSE & Tsinghua University; Colson, University of Essex; Chilosi, University of Groningen.
J Econ Hist. 2018 Sep;78(3):862-903. doi: 10.1017/S0022050718000396. Epub 2018 Aug 29.
Structural transformation is a key indicator of economic development. We present the first time series of male labour sectoral shares for England and Wales before 1800, using a large sample of probate and apprenticeship data to produce national and county-level estimates. England experienced a rapid decline in the share of workers in agriculture between the early seventeenth and the beginning of the eighteenth centuries, associated with rising agricultural and especially industrial productivity; Wales saw few changes. Our results show that England experienced unusually early structural change and highlight the mid-seventeenth century as a turning point.
结构转型是经济发展的关键指标。我们首次呈现了1800年以前英格兰和威尔士男性劳动力部门份额的时间序列,利用大量遗嘱认证和学徒数据样本得出国家和县级层面的估计值。在17世纪初至18世纪初期间,英格兰农业部门工人份额迅速下降,这与农业尤其是工业生产率的提高有关;而威尔士几乎没有变化。我们的研究结果表明,英格兰经历了异常早的结构变化,并突出了17世纪中叶作为一个转折点。