Nies H L
Tijdschr Gerontol Geriatr. 1986 Jun;17(3):117-20.
The Dutch governmental report 'Care of the elderly' is evaluated in the light of the findings of the study 'The elderly and their health in the Netherlands, 1984-2000'. The latter delineates three scenario's, by which in the near future the need of provisions may develop. The reference-scenario assumes a stable, relative demand for provisions, the growth-scenario an increasing and the shrinkage-scenario a decreasing demand. For economical and ideological reasons the Dutch government adheres to the shrinkage-scenario. Nevertheless, the same government also expresses severe doubts concerning the underlying assumptions. The proposed measures appear not to be consistent with the shrinkage-scenario. It is concluded that 'Care of the elderly' demonstrates ambiguity in its view on the future need of provisions by the elderly. This ambiguity appears to be largely determined by restricted financial and regulating means.
荷兰政府报告《老年人护理》依据《1984 - 2000年荷兰老年人及其健康》研究的结果进行了评估。后者描绘了三种情景，据此在不久的将来对护理的需求可能会发展变化。参考情景假设对护理的需求相对稳定，增长情景假设需求增加，而缩减情景假设需求减少。出于经济和意识形态方面的原因，荷兰政府坚持缩减情景。然而，同一政府也对其基本假设表示严重怀疑。所提议的措施似乎与缩减情景不一致。结论是，《老年人护理》在对老年人未来护理需求的看法上表现出模糊性。这种模糊性在很大程度上似乎是由有限的财政和监管手段所决定的。
