School of Water, Environment and Engineering, Cranfield University, Cranfield, MK43 0AL, UK.
Department of Mechanical and Construction Engineering, Northumbria University, Ellison Place, Newcastle Upon Tyne, NE1 8ST, UK.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2019 Mar 28;16(7):1125. doi: 10.3390/ijerph16071125.
Re-using faecal sludge (FS) to generate value has the potential to contribute towards solving the issue of long term sanitation solutions in growing urban areas across sub-Saharan Africa; however, hitherto, no design tools have been available that are capable of simulating a system involving economic factors, complex social issues and environmental circumstances. We hypothesized that Agent-Based Modelling (ABM), when deployed with appropriate rigour, can provide such a tool. Extensive field work was carried out in a Malawian city, investigating the adoption of Skyloo above-ground composting toilets by households, and the operation of the municipal FS site. 65 semi-structured interviews and 148 household interviews, together with observations, were carried out to characterize these processes, with the data acquired being used to construct two separate ABMs. The Skyloo ABM was run for various scenarios of start-up capital for business and payback of loans against the toilet cost to households. The municipal FS Site ABM was run for different patterns of dumping fee and enforcement structure. The field work demonstrated that there is potential for further expansion of FS reuse, with a market for agricultural application. The Skyloo ABM identified the significance of start-up capital for a business installing the toilet technology; the municipal FS Site ABM showed that existing fees, fines and regulatory structure were insufficient to reduce illegal dumping of FS to any useful degree, but that a monthly permit system would provide enhanced revenue to the city council compared with per-visit charging of disposal companies at the municipal FS site. Whilst each ABM ideally requires some additional data before full application, we have, for the first time, shown that ABM provides a basis for the simulation-based design of FS management systems, including complex social, economic and environmental factors.
再利用粪便（FS）来创造价值有可能有助于解决撒哈拉以南非洲不断增长的城市地区的长期卫生解决方案问题；然而，迄今为止，还没有可用的设计工具能够模拟涉及经济因素、复杂社会问题和环境情况的系统。我们假设，当使用适当的严谨性部署基于代理的建模（ABM）时，可以提供这样的工具。在马拉维的一个城市进行了广泛的实地工作，调查家庭对 Skyloo 地上堆肥厕所的采用情况，以及城市 FS 场地的运作情况。进行了 65 次半结构化访谈和 148 次家庭访谈，并进行了观察，以描述这些过程，所获得的数据用于构建两个单独的 ABM。对 Skyloo ABM 进行了各种启动资金情景的运行，以评估业务的启动资金和家庭偿还厕所成本的贷款回报。市政 FS 站点 ABM 针对不同的倾倒费和执法结构模式进行了运行。实地工作表明，FS 再利用具有进一步扩展的潜力，具有农业应用的市场。Skyloo ABM 确定了为安装厕所技术的企业提供启动资金的重要性；市政 FS 站点 ABM 表明，现有的费用、罚款和监管结构不足以将 FS 的非法倾倒减少到任何有用的程度，但每月许可证制度将为市议会提供比在市政 FS 站点对处理公司进行每次访问收费更高的收入。虽然每个 ABM 在全面应用之前都需要一些额外的数据，但我们首次表明，ABM 为 FS 管理系统的基于模拟的设计提供了基础，包括复杂的社会、经济和环境因素。
