School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, China.
Lahore Business School, The University of Lahore, Main Campus, Lahore, Pakistan.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Mar;29(15):22721-22741. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-17436-z. Epub 2021 Nov 19.
The objective of this study is to identify the impact of the shadow economy on renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption at aggregated and disaggregated levels over the period of 1972Q1-2018Q4 in Pakistan. This study carries nonlinear/asymmetric time series analysis such as quantile unit root test for stationary of data series, newly developed quantile cointegration (Xiao, J. Econom. 150:248-260, 2009) for existence of long-run relationships and novel quantile causality approach (Troster, Econom. Rev. 37, 850-866, 2018) are used to identify direction of causality over the quantiles. The results confirm that quantiles of shadow economy cointegrate with the quantiles of energy consumption at aggregated and disaggregated levels. The results of quantile regression show that a shadow economy has a positive and significant impact on renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption at aggregated and disaggregated levels in all quantiles starting from extreme low quantiles to extreme high quantiles. Furthermore, the results of quantile causality illustrate a unidirectional causality running from underground economy to fluctuations in renewable, nonrenewable, and total energy consumption. More specifically, disaggregated energy consumptions such as oil, gas, nuclear, hydro, and gas are also caused by shadow economy, generally in low and high tails/quantiles.
本研究旨在确定影子经济对 1972 年第一季度至 2018 年第四季度期间巴基斯坦总水平和细分水平的可再生和不可再生能源消费的影响。本研究进行了非线性/非对称时间序列分析，如数据序列平稳性的分位数单位根检验、新开发的分位数协整（Xiao，J. Econom. 150：248-260，2009 年）以检验长期关系的存在以及新的分位数因果关系方法（Troster，Econom. Rev. 37，850-866，2018 年）用于确定分位数中的因果关系方向。结果证实，影子经济的分位数与总水平和细分水平的能源消费分位数在所有分位数上都存在协整关系。分位数回归的结果表明，从极低分位数到极高分位数，影子经济对总水平和细分水平的可再生和不可再生能源消费都具有正向且显著的影响。此外，分位数因果关系的结果表明，从地下经济到可再生、不可再生和总能源消费波动存在单向因果关系。更具体地说，石油、天然气、核能、水力和天然气等细分能源消费通常在低和高分位数/分位数上也受到影子经济的推动。
