Department of Neurosurgery, Mie Chuo Medical Center, 2158-5 Myojin-cho, Hisai, Tsu, Mie, 514-1101, Japan.
Department of Neurosurgery, Mie University Graduate School of Medicine, 2-174 Edobashi, Tsu, Mie, 514-8507, Japan.
Mol Neurobiol. 2019 Oct;56(10):7128-7135. doi: 10.1007/s12035-019-1601-7. Epub 2019 Apr 13.
Although delayed cerebral ischemia (DCI) is a well-known complication after subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH), there are no reliable biomarkers to predict DCI development. Matricellular proteins (MCPs) have been reported relevant to DCI and expected to become biomarkers. As machine learning (ML) enables the classification of various input data and the result prediction, the aim of this study was to construct early prediction models of DCI development with clinical variables and MCPs using ML analyses. Early-stage clinical data of 95 SAH patients in a prospective cohort were analyzed and applied to a ML algorithm, random forest, to construct three prediction models: (1) a model with only clinical variables on admission, (2) a model with only plasma levels of MCP (periostin, osteopontin, and galectin-3) at post-onset days 1-3, and (3) a model with both clinical variables on admission and MCP values at days 1-3. The prediction accuracy of the development of DCI, angiographic vasospasm, or cerebral infarction and the importance of each feature were computed. The prediction accuracy of DCI development was 93.9% in model 1, 87.2% in model 2, and 95.1% in model 3, but that of angiographic vasospasm or cerebral infarction was lower. The three most important features in model 3 for DCI were periostin, osteopontin, and galectin-3, followed by aneurysm location. All of the early-stage prediction models of DCI development constructed by ML worked with high accuracy and sensitivity. One-time early-stage measurement of plasma MCPs served for reliable prediction of DCI development, suggesting their potential utility as biomarkers.
尽管迟发性脑缺血(DCI)是蛛网膜下腔出血(SAH)后的一种已知并发症,但目前尚无可靠的生物标志物来预测 DCI 的发生。细胞外基质蛋白(MCPs)与 DCI 相关,有望成为生物标志物。由于机器学习(ML)能够对各种输入数据进行分类和结果预测,因此本研究旨在使用 ML 分析构建基于临床变量和 MCP 的 DCI 发展早期预测模型。对前瞻性队列中的 95 例 SAH 患者的早期临床数据进行分析,并应用于 ML 算法随机森林,构建三个预测模型:(1)仅基于入院时临床变量的模型;(2)仅基于发病后 1-3 天血浆 MCP(骨膜蛋白、骨桥蛋白和半乳糖凝集素-3)水平的模型;(3)同时包含入院时临床变量和 1-3 天 MCP 值的模型。计算了预测 DCI 发展、血管痉挛或脑梗死的模型准确性以及每个特征的重要性。模型 1 预测 DCI 发展的准确率为 93.9%,模型 2 为 87.2%,模型 3 为 95.1%,但预测血管痉挛或脑梗死的准确率较低。模型 3 中预测 DCI 的三个最重要特征是骨膜蛋白、骨桥蛋白和半乳糖凝集素-3,其次是动脉瘤位置。通过 ML 构建的所有 DCI 发展早期预测模型都具有较高的准确性和灵敏度。单次早期测量血浆 MCP 可可靠预测 DCI 的发展,提示其作为生物标志物的潜在应用价值。